NFL

5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 10

Josh Shepardson  —  @BChad50 Nov 9th, 2022

There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.

Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's points per thousand dollars of salary.

But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the heat map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.

Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears ($6,200)

The Chicago Bears versus Detroit Lions is one of the most fantasy-friendly matchups this week.

First, according to Football Outsiders, the Lions play at the 9th-fastest situation-neutral pace, and the Bears are 13th. This game should be played at a breakneck pace.

Second, both defenses are lousy. According to our team power rankings, Detroit has the worst overall defense while the Bears have the fifth-worst unit. In addition, the Lions are the worst pass defense by our metrics.

The Lions have also been a disaster defending deep passes. Quarterbacks have completed 36 of 67 passes (53.7 percent) that traveled at least 15 air yards for 950 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against the Lions.

Darnell Mooney is a field-stretching wideout, making him an excellent matchup fit. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Mooney has a 12.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) with the seventh-highest target share (28.4 percent), and he's 23rd in intended air yards (656).

Mooney is Chicago's best wideout and is in a groove. The third-year wideout has more than 50 receiving yards in five of his last six games, hauling in seven receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown in the outlier last week.

Per Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have torched the Lions for the third-most receiving yards per game (87.9), making the outlook even more promising for Mooney this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,400)

To paraphrase the late Dennis Green, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is who we thought he was.

MVS is a lid-lifting wideout with a boom-or-bust profile. Sadly, the speedster's booms have left much to be desired (90 scoreless yards in Week 5 and 111 scoreless yards in Week 7), and the busts have been more prevalent.

He's the No. 2 wideout for the Kansas City Chiefs, though. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Valdes-Scantling has run the second-most routes (296) among Kansas City's wideouts this season and the second-most (122) in their last three games. Being on the field and running routes is a recipe for potential fantasy points thanks to Patrick Mahomes' rocket arm and ability to make second-reaction plays.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are also a mixed bag when defending deep passes, allowing 21 completions on 60 attempts (35 percent) that traveled at least 15 air yards for 617 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Additionally, No. 2 wideouts average the ninth-most receiving yards per game (55.9) against the Jaguars.

The pace of the game and betting info is also exciting. The Chiefs play at the 6th-fastest situation-neutral pace, and the Jags aren't far behind in 10th. Kansas City also has the highest implied total (30.00 points) on FanDuel's main slate. Obviously, it's always wise to invest in the projected highest-scoring offense.

Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Buffalo Bills ($5,200)

Isaiah McKenzie is a less enticing option if Josh Allen is out with his elbow injury. However, Allen is labeled as day-to-day, creating optimism he can suit up this week.

McKenzie has underwhelmed this year, but he's the lead slot wideout for the Buffalo Bills. Per PFF, McKenzie ran 71 routes compared to only 28 for Khalil Shakir in Buffalo's past three games. Might the Bills flip roles after a disappointing loss? Maybe. So, there's some risk, but there hasn't been any indication of a changing of the guard.

The matchup is sweet for McKenzie if he retains his spot atop Buffalo's slot perch. According to PFF, Chandon Sullivan has given up the most receptions (34), receiving yards (454), and yards after the catch (312 YAC), and he's allowed the fourth-highest quarterback rating (120.9) among cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 70 coverage snaps in the slot. As a result, the Minnesota Vikings have been ripped by slot players.

Buffalo's offensive tendencies are also outstanding for McKenzie's outlook. The Bills play at the fourth-fastest situation-neutral pace and chuck it relentlessly. Buffalo has attempted 231 passes, rushed 48 times with Allen, and rushed 91 times with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this season.

The Bills could throttle down their passing tendencies in the wake of Allen's elbow injury, but it's unfathomable to imagine the pendulum swinging to a run-first team. It's not in their DNA. McKenzie is a nifty dart in tournaments.

Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos ($5,900)

Greg Dulcich is ready to return to providing fantasy goodness after the Denver Broncos' bye in Week 9. Per PFF, in the three weeks Dulcich has played, he was tied for the fourth-most routes (93), tied for the seventh-most targets (17) and receptions (12), third in receiving yards (182), and ninth in yards per route run (1.96 Y/RR) among tight ends targeted at least eight times. He also added a touchdown for good measure.

Dulcich immediately took a stranglehold of Denver's tight end position upon his activation from the injured reserve. Yet, he might have the best game of his young career this week.

First, he could enjoy a post-bye rookie bump. Second, the matchup against the Tennessee Titans is dreamy. Tight ends have the third-most receiving yards per game (69.5) and are tied for the sixth-most receptions (45) against Tennessee this season.

Dulcich might also be treated to more pass-happy play calling this week. Teams have avoided running against Tennessee's stout run defense, as opponents have attempted 173 passes and only 77 rushes with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year. Thus, I expect the Broncos to air it out and for Dulcich to benefit this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST ($3,600)

The Pittsburgh D/ST might be getting a significant contributor back this week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were world-beaters in T.J. Watt's only healthy game this year in Week 1, recording seven sacks and forcing five turnovers against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Steelers can come out of their bye against an offense that struggled last week and has to contend with a short week after playing on Monday. The New Orleans Saints had only 13 first downs, 243 total yards, and 13 points against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. Moreover, Andy Dalton threw an interception and took four sacks.

Dalton has been decent this year, but the bigger body of recent work is less encouraging. According to Stathead, Dalton has the second-highest interception rate (3.3 percent) out of 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts since 2021.

The Steelers have the fourth-highest value score in numberFire projections -- the measure of points per $1,000 of FanDuel salary. Thus, they're a nifty punt.


Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.