NFL Betting Guide: Week 10
Do you think you know a lot about NFL football? Try regularly picking five games against the spread.
Even with all the information and advanced stats, elite sports bettors are lucky to get about 53% to 54% of -110 (even probability) bets correct. It's essentially flipping a coin.
That being said, people -- myself included -- try. There are plenty of contests, media personalities, and other casual games at work or with friends that pick five games each week against the spread to see how they fare.
Using NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, here are my five picks against the spread and a couple of totals I like this week. Play or fade as you please.
Week 9 Recap
Last Week: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record: 26-19-0 (57.8%)
Public 'dogs aren't smart to take. I'm a bit lucky to have split my two from Week 9 with a win (Tennessee) and an ugly, horrible loss (Carolina).
The Bears and Jets delivered for us as home underdogs that weren't in the public eye, and I got burned fading another in the red-hot Seattle Seahawks. Arizona lost to them again.
We won't go broke putting up 3-2 weeks while splitting the two totals, but I want that monstrous week. It could be this one.
Spread Picks
Pick #1: Texans (+5.5) at Giants
Despite the backdoor cover last Thursday, no one is rushing to bet on the Houston Texans -- except me.
I didn't forget about the Giants during their bye week. They were routed in Seattle, but no one hung their head going into the bye at 6-2. Here's the problem -- they're still below the league average in numberFire's passing offense and overall defensive rankings.
Don't get me wrong; Saquon Barkley could absolutely run wild on numberFire's second-worst rush defense. It's the inspiration behind each bet on Big Blue here. However, when New York is ceding a 31% pressure rate (the highest in the NFL) against a Texans defense that gets pressure (31% rate themselves), there's a formula for an upset here.
The line makes no sense. If a home field is indeed worth about 1.7 points, it's saying the 6-2 Giants are about a field goal better than the 1-5-1 Texans. Like 70% of bettors in this spot, I'm to believe there's no way Houston can cover on the road, right?
Wrong.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Giants 20-19
Pick #2: Browns (+3.5) at Dolphins
The Dolphins' defensive issues are catching up to them.
Say what you want about Justin Fields, but the reality is that the Bears scored 32 points and ran for 252 yards. They've plummeted to numberFire's sixth-worst defense in the league overall -- right behind the Cleveland Browns.
Off a bye, the Browns really have to feel a chance to save their season with a win in this position. They demolished Cincinnati on Halloween, and they're numberFire's eighth-best offense behind Jacoby Brissett. That's a championship contender with an upgrade looming.
We know the Fins will put up points in this one behind Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. In a last-score-wins type of environment, I come back to the fact the Browns, behind Nick Chubb, have the fourth-best rushing offense in football. The Dolphins, now rotating backs, have the fourth-worst rushing offense.
With a week to prepare, a field goal is a welcome gift between these two very similar teams, but I think the Browns take the air out of the ball and win outright.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Browns 28-27
Pick #3: Packers (+5) vs. Cowboys
The betting splits on this one come Sunday should be hilarious.
Dallas, coming off two convincing wins at home before their bye, just got back Dak Prescott. Everything is trending up for their offense, and they're already sporting numberFire's top defense overall.
Meanwhile, here are the Green Bay Packers. They had their chances but stumbled against Detroit, scoring just nine points on numberFire's worst defense overall. How on Earth is this line just five points?
Well, if there is a team that fits the criterion required to matchup with Dallas, it's this flawed Packers bunch. They've only allowed a 21% pressure rate this year, which is the second-lowest in the league. That can keep Dallas' league-best 39% pressure rate at bay.
Plus, Green Bay's offensive strength is their running game, and that's the one hole Dallas' defense has shown. They're our 14th-worst rushing defense.
Yet, above those two factors, is there any team Aaron Rodgers wants to beat more than Mike McCarthy's new squad in McCarthy's return to Green Bay? He'll fight until the bitter end in this one.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Cowboys 22-19
Other Selections
I'm seen as a Chiefs hater. I've taken the opposite side in five weeks this year, but they're 3-5 against the spread (ATS) this season. My "hating" hasn't really been offset by reality.
There are plentiful leaks for what's considered the third-best team in football, per our model. They've scored 20 or fewer offensive points in four of their eight games, and they're numberFire's 11th-worst defense overall, which is worse against the rush.
Yet, I continue to get spreads like this as if they're well-rounded juggernauts. The Jaguars are numberFire's eighth-best offense in a phenomenal matchup to score here, and Travis Etienne has unlocked another element of their offense in his new supersized role. He's third in the NFL in rushing yards over expectation per game.
Now, Jacksonville sports our ninth-worst defense, which is why this total is a whopping 50.5 points. This is a shootout where the Chiefs may very well prevail behind arguably the MVP frontrunner, Patrick Mahomes. It's still wild to give an offense as good as Jacksonville's this many points.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Chiefs 30-24
In 2020, the Buccaneers were 7-5 entering their bye week in Tom Brady's first year. They came out of it winning four straight and setting up a run to a title.
Now, that situation only illustrates this point -- I believe the best of the Denver Broncos is yet to come. It's made no sense that their offense has been worse in 2022 with Russell Wilson than it was in 2021 with Drew Lock. This bye week was likely a chance to iron things out.
We already got a taste as they defeated the Jaguars in London before it. Wilson posted 0.08 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. It wasn't earth-shattering, but it was much better than his 0.01 mark overall.
Denver's defense has already been exceptional entering this matchup with the Titans' woeful offense. Derrick Henry aside, whether it's Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis under center, this is a passing game ceding a 30% pressure rate and with no notable talent outside. Enter numberFire's very best pass defense. Henry can only do so much himself -- as we saw last week.
With 82% of bets on Tennessee in this space, I'd love to get a three-point hook. If not, oddsmakers are telling you they're unwilling to give it for a reason.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Broncos 16-13
Totals of the Week
Pick #1: Vikings at Bills (Under 43.5)
I really try to target an over and an under. There's just nothing on the "over" side this week. Instead, this is my favorite way to bet on what's sure to be a wonky game between the Vikings and the Bills.
Of course, the 3.5-point spread here is indicative of the uncertainty around Josh Allen, who didn't practice Wednesday. The Vikes would probably be favored by kickoff if he can't play, but Buffalo also opened as a nine-point favorite before anyone realized it would be serious.
Even with a dinged-up Allen, the under is a sharp bet here. The under has hit in seven of the Bills' eight games thus far thanks to their defense, which is the fifth-best in numberFire's power rankings.
However, Minnesota's defense is underrated, as well. It's the model's ninth-best unit. Plus, this game also has the sixth-slowest average pace on the slate this week.
We've got two solid defenses and a slow pace. Because of all the skill talent in this game, 60% of the bets are still on the over here. However, a whopping 87% of the money is on another Buffalo under, and we'll follow it.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Bills 20-17
Pick #2: Cardinals at Rams (Under 41.5)
Speaking of a team trending under this season, the Los Angeles Rams just can't score.
Their putrid offense, combined with numberFire's 11th-best defense on the other side, has led to 34 or fewer total points in six of the Rams' last seven games. Oh, Matthew Stafford is also in concussion protocol, as well. Not great, Bob!
If only there was a team willing to match that sluggish offensive output. Oh, wait. The Cardinals will.
Five of Arizona's nine games have fallen short of their projected point total, and they've eclipsed 10 first-half points just once all season. It was when Andy Dalton gifted them 14 defensive points right before the half in Week 8.
Arizona's passing offense is the sixth-worst in the NFL, per our nERD rankings. Given Kyler Murray is a talented quarterback with DeAndre Hopkins outside, that's probably not the public's sentiment at this point.
As a result, we've got another massive split on this total. 65% of tickets are on the over in Los Angeles, but 72% of the cash is siding with the under. We'll stick with data and fade -- surprisingly -- two of the worst passing attacks in the league.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Cardinals 19-16
