5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 11

There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projections tool.

Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's points per thousand dollars of salary.

But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, you can peruse the heat map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.

Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.

Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders ($6,600)

Sadly, Brian Robinson is inefficient. Ron Rivera hasn't cared, though.

Robinson has had snap shares of 45.9 percent and 51.85 percent in the last two weeks, flip-flopping for the team lead with Antonio Gibson in the absence of pass-catching back J.D. McKissic. However, Robinson has carried the ball 39 times for 130 yards and one touchdown versus 25 for 80 and one for Gibson.

Robinson's workload has been rock-solid, and his matchup is mouthwatering this week. The Houston Texans are the second-worst run defense in our team power rankings. Further, per Pro Football Reference, running backs average an NFL-high 156.2 rushing yards per game and have scored the most rushing touchdowns (13) against Houston.

The game script might be ideal, too. According to our Heat Map, the Washington Commanders are 3.5-point favorites. The stage is set for Robinson to have his most productive professional game of his rookie season against the Texans this week.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears ($6,200)

The Chicago Bears have placed Khalil Herbert on Injured Reserve (IR), and David Montgomery is now the unquestioned bell-cow back for a tasty matchup. The Atlanta Falcons have the sixth-worst run defense by our metrics.

Running backs have destroyed the Falcons this year, averaging 99.8 rushing yards, 5.8 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 29.9 receiving yards per game. They have scored 11 touchdowns. Unfortunately, Montgomery has been inefficient lately, amassing only 88 scrimmage yards on 23 rush attempts and two receptions in the previous two weeks. Still, Montgomery has reached at least 75 scrimmage yards four times in nine games. The fourth-year running back also has a 62-yard effort with a rushing touchdown on his ledger this season.

Montgomery isn't efficient, and Justin Fields has recently terrorized the opposition as a runner. So, there's a risk of Fields stealing rushing touchdowns, creating a bust risk for Montgomery. Nonetheless, there aren't many backs who have a path to a workhorse role like Montgomery has.

Finally, Montgomery is projected for a stellar showing this week. Our projection algorithm projects Montgomery as the RB11 with the third-highest value score -- the measure of points per $1,000 of salary -- among running backs on FanDuel's main slate.

Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants ($6,300)

Saquon Barkley has a sky-high ceiling and will be chalky, making Darius Slayton a fun pivot in tournaments. Slayton has stepped up and become an integral part of the New York Giants' passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Slayton is seventh in yards per route run (2.92 Y/RR) out of 92 wide receivers who've been targeted at least eight times since Week 7.

Slayton is also first in Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target among 89 wide receivers targeted at least 25 times this year. The vertical wideout is efficient. Fortunately, Slayton is getting useful volume, too. Slayton has averaged 5.2 targets, 3.0 receptions, 63.2 receiving yards per game, and scored two touchdowns since Week 5. He's also had a rock-solid 19.7 percent target share during that stretch.

Slayton can maintain his momentum in a delightful matchup this week. The Detroit Lions have the third-worst pass defense by our metrics. Moreover, according to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wide receivers have barbecued the Lions for the fifth-most receiving yards per game (83.4). So, gamers shouldn't sleep on Slayton as a pivot from the chalkier Barkley in tournaments.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans ($5,900)

Nico Collins is taking a second-year leap this season. The sophomore wideout has caught at least three passes in five of seven games, bested 40 receiving yards in five of his last six, and reached the endzone for the first time this year in Week 10. Collins also set season highs last week with 10 targets and five receptions. Thus, the arrow is pointing upward.

Collins has also cleared Brandin Cooks atop Houston's passing-game pecking order. Cooks had 22 targets, 11 receptions, and 136 scoreless receiving yards through the first two weeks in 2022. However, since then, Collins has bested Cooks in receiving yards (270 versus 182) and air yards (340 compared to 247), and Cooks has a modest four-target advantage (32 and 28) in the five games the duo has played together since Week 3.

Thankfully, no matter if Collins is the No. 1 or No. 2 receiver for the Texans, the matchup is good. No. 1 wideouts have averaged the ninth-most receiving yards (76.4), and No. 2 wideouts have averaged the second-most receiving yards per game (63.9) against the Commanders. Collins is an attractive option in all game types and a nifty stacking option with the previously discussed Robinson.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons ($5,500)

Kyle Pitts is one of the biggest fantasy football disappointments this year.

He's scored only 2 touchdowns and reached at least 80 receiving yards just twice. Still, Pitts was receiving looks recently, amassing target totals of nine, seven, and eight in the previous three weeks. In that three-game stretch, Pitts paced the Atlanta Falcons in target share (29.6 percent), receiving yards (135), and air yards (400).

Pitts popped up for five receptions, 80 receiving yards, and one touchdown in Week 8, but he's corralled only four receptions for 55 scoreless yards on 15 targets in two subsequent games. Obviously, that's not going to cut it.

Nevertheless, Pitts's usage is promising for an outburst if Marcus Mariota throws a few more catchable passes -- which isn't a guarantee. The landscape is bleak at tight end, especially since Travis Kelce isn't on the main slate and Mark Andrews was limited in practice on Wednesday.

Pitts can bust, but he offsets his bust potential with more upside than most of his peers. As a result, our projections are favorable for Pitts, projecting him as the TE2 and for the best value score at the position on the Week 11 main slate.

Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.