Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by GMC
Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 7-3 | 9.51 | 1 | 0 | 95.2% | 2.37 |
| Chiefs | 8-2 | 9.48 | 2 | 0 | 99.7% | 2.24 |
| Cowboys | 7-3 | 8.00 | 3 | 2 | 97.6% | 2.62 |
| Eagles | 9-1 | 7.54 | 4 | -1 | 99.7% | 2.28 |
| Bengals | 6-4 | 6.64 | 5 | -1 | 59.6% | 1.89 |
| Ravens | 7-3 | 4.09 | 6 | 1 | 97.1% | 1.97 |
| 49ers | 6-4 | 3.94 | 7 | 4 | 95.8% | 1.93 |
| Dolphins | 7-3 | 3.27 | 8 | 1 | 79.4% | 1.97 |
| Jets | 6-4 | 2.69 | 9 | -1 | 49.9% | 1.51 |
| Buccaneers | 5-5 | 2.65 | 10 | 0 | 78.4% | 1.76 |
| Patriots | 6-4 | 1.61 | 11 | 1 | 46.4% | 1.40 |
| Titans | 7-3 | 1.20 | 12 | 3 | 95.4% | 1.23 |
| Vikings | 8-2 | 1.07 | 13 | -7 | 98.4% | 1.66 |
| Commanders | 6-5 | -0.51 | 14 | 4 | 37.6% | 1.71 |
| Giants | 7-3 | -0.62 | 15 | -2 | 52.4% | 1.00 |
| Jaguars | 3-7 | -0.68 | 16 | 0 | 4.3% | 1.38 |
| Broncos | 3-7 | -1.12 | 17 | 0 | 0.7% | 1.13 |
| Packers | 4-7 | -1.26 | 18 | -4 | 6.2% | 1.36 |
| Browns | 3-7 | -1.64 | 19 | 4 | 2.8% | 1.40 |
| Seahawks | 6-4 | -1.82 | 20 | 0 | 80.4% | 1.89 |
| Steelers | 3-7 | -1.97 | 21 | 0 | 0.4% | 1.46 |
| Chargers | 5-5 | -2.20 | 22 | 0 | 59.2% | 1.45 |
| Saints | 4-7 | -3.70 | 23 | 2 | 8.5% | 1.07 |
| Cardinals | 4-7 | -3.91 | 24 | -5 | 1.3% | 1.22 |
| Bears | 3-8 | -4.06 | 25 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| Rams | 3-7 | -4.23 | 26 | -2 | 2.4% | 1.15 |
| Colts | 4-6-1 | -4.57 | 27 | 0 | 9.1% | 0.84 |
| Lions | 4-6 | -4.96 | 28 | 2 | 15.1% | 0.85 |
| Falcons | 5-6 | -5.47 | 29 | -1 | 24.7% | 1.13 |
| Raiders | 3-7 | -5.55 | 30 | -1 | 0.8% | 1.19 |
| Panthers | 3-8 | -6.68 | 31 | 0 | 1.5% | 1.06 |
| Texans | 1-8-1 | -12.46 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.40 |
A shellacking of the Minnesota Vikings (now down to 13th in nERD -- more on them later) bumped the 7-3 Dallas Cowboys up two spots in the rankings. More importantly, their nERD score jumped 2.77 points, meaning our model thinks they're nearly a field goal better this week than it did last week.
Despite trailing the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles (4th in nERD) in the standings, our model likes Dallas a tiny bit better than Philadelphia. However, the standings are tough to overcome, and the Eagles have a 79.5% chance to clinch the NFC East. The headstart in the win column also has their Super Bowl win odds (18.4%) substantially higher than Dallas' (7.2%).
The San Francisco 49ers also had a huge victory in Week 11. They romped the Arizona Cardinals (24th) in Mexico and saw their nERD climb by 2.11 points as a result. The win increased their playoff odds by 14.6 points to 95.8% and their NFC West odds by 17.7 points to 79.7%. Incredibly, the win and showing in said win jumped their Super Bowl win odds from just 1.9% to 10.1%. It's hard to find a bigger positive impact for any team this week.
Why are the 8-2 Vikings just 13th in our power rankings? Well, it's important to keep in mind that the ratings themselves show just around 3.00 points between them and a top-six squad, but the Vikings own only one double-digit win (back in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers, who are now 18th in nERD).
Their other seven wins have come by an average of only 5.14 points, and all of them were one-score wins (i.e. within 8 points). Their two losses were by 17 (to the Eagles, 4th in nERD) and by 37 (to the Cowboys, who are 3rd). They remain in a great position to win the division (96.9%), but their Super Bowl odds (3.1%) fell by 4.9 points this week because they looked less like contenders than their record suggested.
