Monday Night Football Betting: Our Model Sees Value on the Total in the Steelers-Colts Clash
Week 12 concludes with a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Neither team has had the 2022 season they were hoping for, and the playoffs are looking unlikely for these two squads. Our model estimates the Colts' postseason chances to be 9.1%, with the Steelers’ chances barely there at 0.4%.
Here's how our metrics rank each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rush Off NEP Rank | Pass Off NEP Rank | Rush Def NEP Rank | Pass Def NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.97 | 21 | 15 | 22 | 12 | 24 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -4.57 | 27 | 31 | 26 | 3 | 13 |
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model expects a close game, but we're giving a slight edge to the Colts, expecting them to win outright 58.3% of the time.
The Colts are 2.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, and our model also gives them the edge against the spread (ATS), setting the likelihood Indy will cover at 53.4%. The Colts' are -115 (53.5% implied probability) to cover, and their moneyline odds sit at -144 (59% implied) -- pretty much right in line with our numbers.
Our model suggests passing on either team’s moneyline and has the Colts ATS as a one-star wager.
numberFire’s model may not have loved the moneyline and spread bets, but it loves the over tonight. The point total is a low 39.5, with odds for the over being the usual -110 (52.4% implied). But we have the likelihood of the over hitting at 73.1%.
This gives us a *rings large bell* five-star wager! Hammer the over tonight, folks.
Player Prop Value Bets
Since we're expecting more points than advertised, the offensive production has to come from somewhere.
A good place to start looking is probably the most obvious -- Jonathan Taylor. Our player projection model has Taylor eclipsing the 100-yard mark on the ground at 101.2 rushing yards, which is well over his corresponding prop line of 85.5 rushing yards.
The Steelers' defense has been quite good against the run the last two weeks. The return of T.J. Watt definitely helps, but their opponents were the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals -- two teams that have struggled to run the ball effectively this season. Take the over on Taylor's rushing line at -110 odds.
Another prop our model likes is the over on Pat Freiermuth's total receptions (4.5 receptions at -148). It’s a bit of a steep price, but our model projects him for 5.3 receptions, and he has earned at least 7 targets in seven of the nine games he’s played this season.
Final Notes
-- Since the start of the 2020 season, only 31 of all regular season games (about 4.5%) have had a point total of 39.5 or lower.
-- The Steelers have had four games hit the over this season. They've failed to cover in all four.
-- Of spread bets, 65% of the money and 65% of the wagers are on the Colts.
