FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13 Thursday Night (Bills at Patriots)
The New England Patriots' 2021 campaign ended with a 47-17 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. The AFC East rivals meet Thursday for the first time this season.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bills are 4.0-point road favorites in a game with a 43.5-point total. That makes the implied score 23.75-19.75 in favor of Buffalo.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
MVP Candidates
Josh Allen ($17,500 on FanDuel) is in his own tier, and he's salaried like it, with a tag that is $2,500 more than anyone else's. He's the obvious top MVP, and he's going to be extremely chalky.
Despite a tough road matchup against a solid New England defense, Allen projects for 23.4 FanDuel points, per our model, 5.0 clear of the field. In his last two matchups against Bill Belichick's defense (counting the playoffs), Allen has thrown for 300 yards in each, ran for 60-plus yards in both and amassed eight total touchdowns. He's that dude. Even a meh Allen performance could pace the slate in scoring.
If you want to dodge the Allen chalk at MVP, you can turn to Rhamondre Stevenson ($14,000) or Stefon Diggs ($15,000). Outside of those two, it's tough to make an MVP argument for anyone else.
Diggs has scored double-digit FanDuel points in all but one game. He's lacked slate-breaking outbursts, though, failing to top 20.0 FanDuel points in any of the five games since the Bills' bye week. He's still had gaudy usage in that span, including a 32% target share and 37% air yards share, so a spike game is coming at some point. We have Diggs posting 15.6 FanDuel points.
Stevenson is likely to see huge volume with Damien Harris (thigh injury) out. Harris has missed two games and exited early in another. In those three contests, Stevenson racked up 27, 24 and 22 total opportunities (carries plus targets). While the Pats probably want to run it as much as they can, Stevenson should eat regardless of game script as he's averaged 7.6 targets per game over the last five. He's my favorite non-Allen MVP play, and we forecast him to score 18.4 FanDuel points.
Whenever any signal-caller is going to be overlooked at MVP, I'm intrigued. Mac Jones ($13,500) fits the mold on this slate as he won't see much MVP love. However, he's generated more than 20.0 FanDuel points just once -- 23.28 last week -- and offers very little as a runner. He's not a bad flex option but is a tough sell at MVP.
Those four are the only players our model projects for at least 10.0 FanDuel points.
Flex Breakdown
Gabriel Davis ($11,000), Dawson Knox ($8,500), Isaiah McKenzie ($9,500) and Devin Singletary ($12,000) are the other top skill guys on the Bills.
I'm most into Davis. He's a boom-or-bust option who has scored more than 9.3 FanDuel points only twice across Buffalo's last five games, but on a single-game slate, Davis can get into the optimal on the back of one long touchdown. The usage is there. He's garnered a 21% target share and 30% air yards share in said recent five-game span.
Singletary has played between 72% and 78% of the snaps in each of Buffalo's five post-bye games. He's seen at least 15 total opportunities in four of those five games. His role has not been impacted by the Bills' acquisition of Nyheim Hines ($7,000), who, for the most part, has been relegated to the return game. Our model projects Singletary for 9.6 FanDuel points.
McKenzie's role has been pretty solid of late as he's logged a snap rate of at least 66% in three of the past four games. But that's resulted in just a 12% target share and 11% air yards share in that stretch. Salaried up after a big game on Thanksgiving, he's a poor point-per-dollar play, per our model, as we peg him for just 4.4 FanDuel points.
Knox is on the field plenty -- between 78% and 88% of the snaps in five straight -- but owns a mere 12% target share. He's a fine salary-saver who could score a touchdown, but he's a distant third to Diggs and Davis in this passing attack.
On the Patriots' side, DeVante Parker ($8,000), Jakobi Meyers ($11,500), Nelson Agholor ($6,500) and Hunter Henry ($6,500) need to be on our radar. All of them would benefit from the Pats falling behind and needing to air it out. Buffalo's D has been vulnerable through the air in recent weeks.
Meyers is the pick of the litter. A shoulder injury kept him to a season-low 16% snap rate last week. Despite that, he still pulled in three catches for 62 yards and is the clear number-one option in New England's passing game. He played 95% of the snaps in his last fully healthy game.
Henry, Parker and Agholor are solid value choices who can help you find the salary for Allen, Diggs and Stevenson. Agholor has amassed a 17% target share and 26% air yards share in the two games since the Pats' bye. In the same split, Parker has just a 9% target share, but his air yards share is 21%. Henry has topped 50 yards in two of the past three games, scoring a touchdown last week and nearly getting another.
According to our numbers, both kickers project fairly well. We project Tyler Bass ($9,000) for 9.0 FanDuel points and rate him as the top point-per-dollar play among those salaried under $13,500. Nick Folk ($8,500) is projected for 7.5 FanDuel points.
I'm not in love with either defense. The Buffalo D/ST ($10,000) is salaried up. Jones is -156 to throw a pick, but he hasn't tossed one in the past three games. The New England D/ST ($9,000) has a more palatable salary, and Allen is -139 to throw a pick. Across the past five games, Allen has seven picks and has put the ball on the ground four times (losing just one fumble). If I roster either D/ST, it'll be New England's.
