FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 Monday Night (Rams at Packers), Presented by VISA
Tonight, the Green Bay Packers host the Los Angeles Rams as 7.5-point home favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook. As has been the trend in these Monday games lately, the total is a low one, coming in at just 39.5 points, so we might need some NFL DFS to liven things up.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
The single-game daily fantasy football slate isn't all you can enjoy tonight. Be sure to join the VISA Monday Night Perfect Picks contest, a standard pick'em format about tonight's matchup. Just answer 10 questions about the upcoming on-field action, and if you're one of the fans to answer the most questions correctly, you'll earn a share of the prize pool. Join the contest now, and make your picks for a chance to win.
MVP Candidates
Aaron Rodgers ($16,000) leads the way in numberFire's projections by a wide margin, and he's one of just three players projected for double-digit FanDuel points.
However, while Rodgers is a pretty good lock to put up a solid fantasy performance -- he's scored 15-19 FanDuel points in 9 of 13 games -- he's yet to crack 20 points all season. The veteran quarterback has thrown for three touchdowns just once, and he hasn't logged any 300-yard passing games.
That being said, with Rodgers coming off a bye and facing numberFire's 23rd-ranked scheduled-adjusted pass defense, he should probably be featured as at least a flex in most lineup builds. But given that he also ought to be a popular MVP, you may want to consider looking elsewhere for your multiplier slot in single-entry formats.
Aaron Jones ($13,500) and Baker Mayfield ($14,000) are the other two players projected for double-digit points.
Jones is a logical alternative to Rodgers at MVP, though he was dealing with a shin injury prior to the bye and was limited by an ankle injury in practice this week. While that's a slight concern, the extra week of rest should allow him to take on his usual workload.
In his 11 healthy games playing over half the snaps, Jones has averaged 13.3 carries and 4.6 targets per game this year. Despite more volatile results compared to Rodgers, he's displayed the better ceiling, cracking 20 FanDuel points three times and even hitting 30 points in Week 2.
Mayfield helped orchestrate a memorable comeback off the bench in his Rams debut last week, and unsurprisingly, he'll be the starter tonight.
As a quarterback, he's in the mix at MVP by default and will surely benefit from having a week and a half to learn the playbook, but he's probably the least likely of these first three to lead the slate in scoring. This offensive line ranks 29th in pass blocking, per PFF's grades, and this pass-catching group has taken a big hit with both Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson done for the year. The Packers are also much better against the pass (12th in our metrics) compared to the run (28th).
Following this trio, the best of the rest get muddled together in our projections, but not all of them have a realistic shot at coming through as our MVP. Chances are it will come from the heavily favored home team, though, so wideouts Christian Watson ($13,000) and Allen Lazard ($10,000) are two guys to have in your multiplier pool.
Since Watson's emergence in Week 10, he leads the team in both target share (23.6%) and air yards share (44.7%), and he has scored at least 19 FanDuel points in all four games over that span. Although it's a bit flukey that he's scored a whopping seven touchdowns during this stretch, he's led the team in both red zone target share (35.7%) and end zone target share (41.7%) in this time, too.
Lazard's MVP credentials aren't as gaudy as his teammate's, but he figures to be the less popular option. Over the last four games, Lazard has maintained a 21.8% target share and 26.2% air yards share -- both second-best -- and he's still led all Green Bay pass-catchers in snap rate (95.7%) and route rate (95.9%). He's a great way to be contrarian at MVP without going completely off the board.
Lastly, in a potential low-scoring game, it isn't crazy to consider the Green Bay D/ST ($9,000) as a multiplier option. In fact, the Packers' defense actually has the fourth-highest median projection overall tonight. Facing a weak offensive line and a quarterback who was let go by the lowly Panthers, this defensive unit could be primed for one of their best fantasy results of the year.
Flex Breakdown
Considering we've mostly ignored the Rams to this point, let's begin with them in our flex breakdown.
Since the injuries to Kupp and Robinson, Van Jefferson ($11,000) and Ben Skowronek ($8,000) have led the wideouts in snaps, and Tutu Atwell ($6,000) has recently emerged with a prominent role, as well.
Jefferson has taken over as the new number one, logging a 94.9% snap rate and 98.9% route rate over the last three games, though it hasn't led to a dominant target share (18.3%). Even so, he's soaked up a hefty 32.9% air yards share and has scored touchdowns in two of those three weeks.
Skowronek has also become a full-time player over the past two games, playing the exact same number of snaps as Jefferson, and it's worth noting that he was featured prominently in last week's comeback win, catching 7 of 8 targets for a team-best 89 receiving yards. It's always possible he sees a slight uptick in targets with Mayfield under center.
Atwell is the slate's shoo-in value play at just $1,000 above the minimum. He played a season-high 59.0% snap rate in Week 14 and led the team in both target share (26.5%) and air yards share (41.6%). He also has six carries over the last two games, further enhancing his appeal.
Tight end Tyler Higbee ($7,500) is the one other L.A. pass-catcher to have on your radar, though he's more of a secondary option at best. While Higbee seems to be fully healthy after posting a 95.1% snap rate and 76.9% route rate last week, it only led to three targets, and he's pretty much been a non-factor in the passing game for the last three weeks.
Switching gears, as noted earlier, the Packers are much more vulnerable to the run. The only problem is that the Rams are splitting touches between three different backs in Cam Akers ($12,000), Kyren Williams ($7,000), and Malcolm Brown ($5,000) -- a nightmare for fantasy. None of the three played even half the snaps in Week 14.
But if we're taking a chance on any of them, it's Akers. Last week, he led the group in snap rate (41.0%), carries (12), and scrimmage yards (43), and he saw both rushes inside the red zone. If the Rams keep things close, he's also the most likely candidate to see a bump in volume, something we saw in Week 13 when Akers logged season-highs in both snaps (73.0%) and carries (17). He's scored three touchdowns over the past two games and may even be a fringe MVP if you build a lineup under the assumption that the Rams pull off an upset.
On the other hand, Williams and Brown feel more like dart throws, with both seeing 29.5% of last week's snaps. Williams theoretically benefits from a negative game script, but that was the case in the last game, and it only amounted to two targets and three rushes. Brown got two targets and one carry last week, and he's seen sporadic playing time at best this season.
Hopping back over the Packers, their top remaining players who haven't been mentioned yet are A.J. Dillon ($11,500), Randall Cobb ($9,500), Romeo Doubs ($6,500), and Robert Tonyan ($6,500).
Dillon is easily the most trustworthy of this group. He's played second-fiddle to Aaron Jones, but he's averaged 11.0 carries and 2.5 targets per game, and that's right around what we should expect tonight. Dillon is also the clear beneficiary when Jones is banged up as we saw in Week 13 when he racked up 18 carries and a season-high 66.7% snap rate.
Cobb has been the third wideout behind Lazard and Watson over the last three games, playing roughly half the snaps and earning a 15.4% target share, but the return of Doubs could complicate things. Given that he's always been a favorite of Aaron Rodgers, it's possible Cobb's role remains mostly intact, though. As for Doubs, Matt LaFleur has indicated he won't play "a full complement of snaps" tonight, so despite the low salary, he might be worth crossing off entirely unless you're mass-multi entering.
Similar to his counterpart Higbee, Tonyan hasn't exactly been lighting up the box score this season, leaving him in dart-throw territory. Outside of his Week 6 outburst for 10 catches and 90 yards, the tight end has been held under 40 yards in every other game, and he has only one touchdown this year. Since Watson's breakout, Tonyan is also showing a middling 9.1% target share.
As is usually the case in low-total games, kickers Mason Crosby ($8,000) and Matt Gay ($8,500) have added appeal as flex options in case this turns into a field-goal fest. Being the kicker on the favored side, Crosby actually projects as one of the better values in our model.
