Super Bowl Betting Futures Update: Week 16
With only three weeks of the 2022 regular season reaming, the number of teams with a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl is beginning to whittle down considerably. But until a team has been mathematically eliminated from postseason consideration, the dream of ultimate glory lives on.
That said, here are the up-to-date Super Bowl winning odds for all teams still in contention, courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +350 | 22.2% | 22.4% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +460 | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +700 | 12.5% | 9.9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +750 | 11.8% | 12.9% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1100 | 8.3% | 7.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +2100 | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2400 | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2900 | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3100 | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | +3400 | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Detroit Lions | +5500 | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | +6000 | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +8500 | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| New York Giants | +9000 | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| New England Patriots | +11000 | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| New York Jets | +14000 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Washington Commanders | +17000 | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | +18000 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | +28000 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | +31000 | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | +39000 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +39000 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +65000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +85000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The two teams at the top of the betting who are suddenly making a move are the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals. The 49ers have seen their odds improve in each of the last two weeks, while the Bengals, currently on offer at +750, were as far out as +2800 ahead of Week 11. These are two teams with recent playoff experience, and the way they are going at the moment makes them a team few would be interested in locking horns with come January. The Bengals can lock up a playoff spot with a win this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles are currently second in the betting, and they own a 17.9% chance to win it all, according to our metrics. They are currently ranked first in nERD, but the injury to quarterback Jalen Hurts has come at a less-than-ideal time. The Eagles are still strong favorites to claim the top seed in the NFC, but how healthy Hurts will be when the playoffs begin is open to question.
Week 15 losses for the Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks have seen the odds plummet for both sides. Each time has less than a 30% chance of making the playoffs, according to our numbers, which would represent quite a failure given how both sides looked not too long ago.
The Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are all supping in the last-chance saloon in Week 16. Losses for these sides this week would see them eliminated from playoff contention, while another tie for the Colts would achieve the same result. If the New Orleans Saints lose their Week 16 game and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win theirs, then we can also wave goodbye to Dennis Allen and his men.
