NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 16
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,200 | 23.6 | 2.59 | 18.4 | 29.3 | 42.3% | 1.26 |
| Josh Allen | $9,500 | 22.5 | 2.36 | 16.7 | 28.0 | 37.9% | 0.66 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,400 | 18.5 | 2.48 | 12.6 | 23.9 | 21.1% | 0.99 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,700 | 18.5 | 2.33 | 12.8 | 23.2 | 19.0% | 0.71 |
| Joe Burrow | $8,100 | 18.4 | 2.26 | 13.5 | 23.1 | 17.8% | 0.53 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,500 | 17.8 | 2.35 | 13.0 | 22.7 | 16.2% | 0.77 |
| Geno Smith | $7,600 | 16.7 | 2.18 | 11.7 | 21.1 | 13.2% | 0.47 |
| Justin Fields | $7,800 | 16.3 | 2.03 | 10.7 | 21.2 | 12.4% | 0.36 |
| Gardner Minshew | $6,100 | 15.6 | 2.68 | 11.4 | 21.1 | 9.8% | 1.39 |
| Brock Purdy | $6,900 | 15.3 | 2.17 | 10.0 | 19.9 | 7.0% | 0.49 |
| Jared Goff | $7,000 | 15.1 | 2.17 | 10.4 | 19.8 | 10.0% | 0.48 |
| Deshaun Watson | $6,800 | 13.9 | 2.05 | 9.1 | 18.8 | 6.0% | 0.38 |
| Sam Darnold | $6,700 | 13.8 | 2.06 | 8.8 | 18.5 | 7.0% | 0.40 |
| Mac Jones | $6,400 | 13.7 | 2.12 | 8.7 | 18.6 | 5.6% | 0.49 |
| Tyler Huntley | $6,700 | 13.5 | 2.02 | 8.9 | 18.3 | 4.8% | 0.36 |
| Malik Willis | $6,600 | 12.8 | 1.95 | 8.4 | 17.4 | 3.1% | 0.29 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $6,600 | 11.8 | 1.79 | 7.5 | 16.5 | 2.9% | 0.20 |
| Davis Mills | $6,500 | 11.1 | 1.72 | 6.4 | 15.4 | 1.3% | 0.14 |
| Desmond Ridder | $6,400 | 10.8 | 1.66 | 6.5 | 14.6 | 2.0% | 0.14 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,500 | 9.5 | 1.43 | 5.3 | 13.4 | 1.0% | 0.07 |
| Jeff Driskel | $6,300 | 3.2 | 0.58 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 0.0% | 0.00 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,400 | 20.6 | 2.20 | 14.8 | 26.2 | 53.0% | 3.05 |
| Derrick Henry | $9,800 | 19.5 | 1.97 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 45.8% | 1.98 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,500 | 17.1 | 2.04 | 11.8 | 22.7 | 38.0% | 2.05 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,700 | 15.6 | 1.75 | 10.1 | 20.2 | 26.0% | 0.97 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $8,300 | 14.2 | 1.74 | 9.2 | 19.8 | 24.7% | 0.96 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,900 | 12.9 | 1.69 | 8.1 | 17.9 | 17.2% | 0.78 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $6,900 | 12.6 | 1.83 | 7.8 | 17.1 | 13.6% | 1.09 |
| Tony Pollard | $7,700 | 12.6 | 1.62 | 7.9 | 17.4 | 14.4% | 0.75 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,500 | 12.5 | 1.70 | 7.7 | 17.6 | 15.3% | 0.88 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,400 | 12.3 | 1.62 | 7.3 | 16.3 | 11.9% | 0.69 |
| Miles Sanders | $7,100 | 12.0 | 1.76 | 7.6 | 16.7 | 14.2% | 0.90 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $7,300 | 11.6 | 1.61 | 7.4 | 16.4 | 12.7% | 0.72 |
| David Montgomery | $7,200 | 11.6 | 1.51 | 6.5 | 15.9 | 10.9% | 0.62 |
| J.K. Dobbins | $7,000 | 11.3 | 1.65 | 6.5 | 15.8 | 10.8% | 0.73 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $7,400 | 10.6 | 1.42 | 6.0 | 15.1 | 8.2% | 0.45 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $6,100 | 10.5 | 1.66 | 5.7 | 15.0 | 7.7% | 0.87 |
| D'Andre Swift | $6,800 | 10.4 | 1.54 | 5.8 | 14.9 | 8.4% | 0.61 |
| Jamaal Williams | $6,800 | 10.2 | 1.47 | 5.3 | 14.6 | 6.9% | 0.52 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,400 | 10.0 | 1.60 | 5.5 | 14.9 | 6.8% | 0.72 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $6,000 | 9.8 | 1.67 | 5.5 | 14.1 | 4.7% | 0.81 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $6,200 | 9.7 | 1.55 | 5.4 | 13.6 | 4.7% | 0.61 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $6,700 | 9.6 | 1.52 | 4.4 | 14.9 | 7.1% | 0.57 |
| Brian Robinson | $6,600 | 9.0 | 1.32 | 4.0 | 13.2 | 4.0% | 0.37 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $6,200 | 8.2 | 1.30 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 2.8% | 0.37 |
| Antonio Gibson | $5,800 | 7.3 | 1.24 | 3.4 | 11.2 | 1.5% | 0.30 |
| Samaje Perine | $5,500 | 7.2 | 1.33 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 1.4% | 0.44 |
| Damien Harris | $6,500 | 6.9 | 1.06 | 3.2 | 10.8 | 1.4% | 0.17 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,900 | 6.8 | 1.13 | 2.5 | 10.8 | 1.0% | 0.24 |
| James Cook | $5,300 | 6.0 | 1.14 | 1.9 | 10.4 | 0.9% | 0.34 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.01 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 1.3% | 0.24 |
| Gus Edwards | $5,700 | 5.1 | 1.00 | 1.7 | 9.5 | 0.6% | 0.20 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,600 | 5.0 | 0.87 | 1.3 | 8.6 | 0.4% | 0.13 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $5,000 | 4.7 | 0.87 | 0.8 | 8.4 | 0.4% | 0.18 |
| Travis Homer | $5,100 | 4.4 | 0.89 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Khalil Herbert | $5,500 | 4.1 | 0.71 | 0.8 | 7.3 | 0.0% | 0.07 |
| Justin Jackson | $5,200 | 4.0 | 0.82 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 0.4% | 0.12 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $9,300 | 17.0 | 1.83 | 11.2 | 22.4 | 46.2% | 1.16 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $8,800 | 14.0 | 1.65 | 9.1 | 19.7 | 33.6% | 0.73 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $8,000 | 13.8 | 1.74 | 8.6 | 19.3 | 31.1% | 0.99 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $8,300 | 13.7 | 1.69 | 8.8 | 18.8 | 31.5% | 0.80 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $8,400 | 13.6 | 1.62 | 9.1 | 17.7 | 25.6% | 0.56 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,700 | 13.3 | 1.58 | 8.7 | 18.5 | 29.5% | 0.62 |
| A.J. Brown | $8,500 | 12.6 | 1.51 | 7.1 | 18.1 | 27.6% | 0.56 |
| Tee Higgins | $7,700 | 10.9 | 1.40 | 6.4 | 15.9 | 18.2% | 0.43 |
| D.J. Moore | $7,100 | 10.7 | 1.62 | 6.5 | 15.8 | 17.6% | 0.67 |
| DeVonta Smith | $7,600 | 10.1 | 1.27 | 5.3 | 14.6 | 14.1% | 0.32 |
| Terry McLaurin | $7,000 | 9.9 | 1.40 | 5.4 | 14.2 | 13.5% | 0.43 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $7,300 | 9.4 | 1.27 | 5.5 | 13.2 | 8.1% | 0.22 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,300 | 9.0 | 1.55 | 4.6 | 14.2 | 13.2% | 0.60 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,600 | 9.0 | 1.37 | 4.8 | 13.0 | 8.4% | 0.35 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,800 | 8.8 | 1.30 | 4.4 | 13.0 | 8.2% | 0.31 |
| Gabriel Davis | $6,400 | 8.7 | 1.36 | 3.9 | 13.2 | 11.0% | 0.45 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,800 | 8.5 | 1.45 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 7.9% | 0.57 |
| Drake London | $6,400 | 8.5 | 1.33 | 4.8 | 12.4 | 6.4% | 0.34 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,700 | 8.4 | 1.18 | 4.0 | 12.8 | 7.6% | 0.32 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $6,200 | 8.3 | 1.29 | 4.3 | 12.2 | 5.5% | 0.35 |
| Chris Moore | $6,100 | 7.9 | 1.27 | 4.5 | 11.2 | 3.4% | 0.28 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,500 | 7.9 | 1.20 | 4.2 | 11.5 | 4.4% | 0.22 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,700 | 7.5 | 1.33 | 3.6 | 11.2 | 4.6% | 0.36 |
| Chris Olave | $6,900 | 7.5 | 1.13 | 3.2 | 12.4 | 6.7% | 0.21 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $6,000 | 7.4 | 1.27 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 2.6% | 0.24 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,700 | 7.3 | 1.30 | 3.0 | 11.8 | 5.4% | 0.40 |
| K.J. Osborn | $6,100 | 7.2 | 1.20 | 3.7 | 11.0 | 3.4% | 0.21 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,500 | 7.2 | 1.11 | 3.6 | 10.9 | 2.5% | 0.13 |
| Richie James | $5,200 | 7.1 | 1.41 | 4.0 | 10.9 | 2.3% | 0.43 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,700 | 7.1 | 1.24 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 0.6% | 0.17 |
| Nico Collins | $5,900 | 6.9 | 1.17 | 3.0 | 10.7 | 3.5% | 0.24 |
| Jahan Dotson | $5,300 | 6.9 | 1.29 | 3.1 | 10.8 | 3.6% | 0.41 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | $5,800 | 6.7 | 1.16 | 2.8 | 10.2 | 2.1% | 0.22 |
| Jauan Jennings | $5,800 | 6.7 | 1.14 | 3.0 | 9.9 | 1.1% | 0.18 |
| D.J. Chark | $5,700 | 6.5 | 1.17 | 2.8 | 10.6 | 2.5% | 0.27 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $5,500 | 6.5 | 1.12 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 0.8% | 0.19 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $6,500 | 6.3 | 1.02 | 2.2 | 11.1 | 3.5% | 0.15 |
| Noah Brown | $5,600 | 6.1 | 1.11 | 2.9 | 9.5 | 1.4% | 0.18 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,300 | 5.9 | 1.10 | 2.2 | 9.0 | 1.0% | 0.19 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | $5,600 | 5.8 | 1.04 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 2.0% | 0.20 |
| Josh Reynolds | $5,500 | 5.5 | 0.99 | 1.8 | 9.2 | 1.0% | 0.18 |
| Robert Woods | $5,400 | 5.4 | 1.04 | 2.1 | 8.7 | 0.9% | 0.13 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,100 | 5.1 | 0.99 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 0.8% | 0.17 |
| DeSean Jackson | $5,000 | 5.1 | 1.01 | 1.2 | 9.5 | 2.4% | 0.27 |
| Chase Claypool | $5,500 | 5.0 | 0.92 | 1.4 | 8.1 | 0.2% | 0.12 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,300 | 4.5 | 0.87 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
| Treylon Burks | $6,200 | 4.3 | 0.66 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 0.6% | 0.05 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | $5,100 | 4.3 | 0.79 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 0.1% | 0.06 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,100 | 4.2 | 0.82 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
| Kadarius Toney | $5,600 | 4.0 | 0.71 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 0.0% | 0.01 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | $5,000 | 4.0 | 0.74 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.08 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,600 | 15.6 | 1.85 | 11.1 | 20.6 | 54.8% | 1.30 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,400 | 10.3 | 1.66 | 6.3 | 15.3 | 26.5% | 0.88 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,000 | 9.6 | 1.60 | 5.2 | 13.8 | 19.3% | 0.72 |
| George Kittle | $7,000 | 8.8 | 1.20 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 14.8% | 0.24 |
| Dallas Goedert | $6,200 | 8.4 | 1.34 | 3.9 | 12.4 | 13.4% | 0.37 |
| Dalton Schultz | $6,100 | 8.2 | 1.28 | 4.1 | 12.0 | 12.2% | 0.36 |
| Cole Kmet | $5,100 | 6.8 | 1.29 | 2.9 | 10.3 | 7.8% | 0.40 |
| Dawson Knox | $5,700 | 6.5 | 1.19 | 3.0 | 10.7 | 7.8% | 0.30 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | $5,400 | 6.4 | 1.15 | 2.6 | 10.0 | 5.0% | 0.27 |
| David Njoku | $5,800 | 6.1 | 1.05 | 2.4 | 9.7 | 4.0% | 0.18 |
| Taysom Hill | $6,500 | 6.1 | 0.88 | 1.0 | 10.4 | 8.3% | 0.14 |
| Noah Fant | $5,300 | 6.0 | 1.20 | 3.3 | 9.3 | 2.7% | 0.22 |
| Daniel Bellinger | $4,700 | 5.7 | 1.21 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 2.9% | 0.33 |
| Jordan Akins | $4,900 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 1.9 | 8.3 | 1.8% | 0.18 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,000 | 4.8 | 0.91 | 1.5 | 8.3 | 2.2% | 0.17 |
| Juwan Johnson | $5,900 | 4.7 | 0.85 | 1.1 | 8.5 | 2.8% | 0.09 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,800 | 4.5 | 0.95 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 1.1% | 0.14 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,500 | 4.3 | 0.89 | 0.9 | 7.4 | 1.3% | 0.16 |
| Logan Thomas | $4,900 | 4.3 | 0.79 | 0.3 | 7.7 | 2.0% | 0.15 |
| Will Dissly | $4,600 | 4.1 | 0.84 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 1.0% | 0.11 |
| Noah Gray | $4,600 | 3.2 | 0.67 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 0.2% | 0.07 |
| MyCole Pruitt | $4,700 | 3.1 | 0.66 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 0.3% | 0.05 |
| Ian Thomas | $4,500 | 2.9 | 0.61 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 0.3% | 0.05 |
| Tommy Tremble | $4,600 | 2.9 | 0.60 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.4% | 0.06 |
