3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18: Sunday Slate

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.

A.J. Brown Any Time Touchdown (+120)

Week 18 of the NFL season is here, and it offers some of the most unique factors when it comes to player props.

As I outlined in the player props article for Saturday's slate, motivation is the key factor we need to be considering this week. Motivation for the team to play their starters and win the game due to playoff scenarios, or motivation for players when it comes to contract incentives.

When it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles, their motivation is at 100%. With a win over the New York Giants, they will clinch the number-one seed in the NFC and get a first-round bye. That is absolutely huge and is a clear indication we will be seeing their starters play in a normal capacity.

On the other side, the Giants have nothing to play for and their seeding cannot change with a win or a loss. There are reports they will be resting some starters on Sunday, but we'll need final confirmation of that with the inactive list before kick-off.

The Giants have the 12th-worst pass defense, per our metrics, so if they sit any defensive starters, it'll only weaken what is an already meh pass D, which spells good things for A.J. Brown.

Brown is an elite pass-catcher and comes in with 114.15 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the sixth-best among wide receivers this season. He is boasting a 28.8% target share, 40.4% air yards share, 12.0 average depth of target (aDOT), and -- most importantly for this prop -- a team-high 31.3% red zone target share.

The Eagles have a slate-high 28.75 implied team total this week, and with full motivation to win, they should be pouring on the points.

Geno Smith Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Seattle Seahawks need to win and get a little bit of help to make the playoffs, putting their motivation all the way up this week.

Beat the Los Angeles Rams and then watch Sunday Night Football and hope the Detroit Lions can win against the Green Bay Packers. That is the path for the Seahawks to the postseason. But they need to start by taking care of their own business, and that means a big game from Geno Smith.

That path for the Seahawks is one of Smith's contract incentives for this game, and if they do make the playoffs, it nets him an additional $2 million. Some of that is out of his control, but Geno obviously has a lot of reasons to be at his best on Sunday.

Smith has been pretty dang good this season with 64.08 Passing NEP, which is the 12th-best clip in the league. That has helped him go for an average of 254 passing yards per game. He's gone over this 237.5 prop in nine of his 16 games.

Smith torched the Rams earlier this year for 367 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, which isn't too much of a surprise since the Rams' secondary isn't what it once was, ranking ninth-worst by our metrics.

With full motivation to win in addition to a favorable matchup, Smith should be poised to go over 237.5 passing yards this week.

Pat Freiermuth Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Another prop and another player on a team with motivation to win.

The team would be the Pittsburgh Steelers, the player is Pat Freiermuth, and the prop is over 43.5 receiving yards. The Steelers need to win and then have the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots both lose to make the playoffs. It's not easy, but it starts with Pittsburgh winning against the Cleveland Browns.

If we look at the last eight weeks -- the time since Chase Claypool was traded to the Chicago Bears -- Freiermuth comes in with a 20.5% target share, 21.4% air yards share, 8.5 aDOT, and 23.3% red zone target share, while playing on 67.0% of the snaps and running a route on 77.9% of drop backs.

That is a solid role for the second-year tight end, and he is averaging 52 receiving yards per game this season. Not to mention the fact he has a 59.59 Receiving NEP, which slots him fifth-best among tight ends.

The Steelers should be looking to get the ball to one of their consistent producers in a must-win game against a team that has nothing to play for.