NFL

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 18

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Jalen
Hurts
$9,000 24.62.7318.330.047.2%1.59
Josh
Allen
$8,800 22.82.6417.328.640.9%1.30
Joe
Burrow
$8,200 19.52.4215.024.522.4%0.78
Aaron
Rodgers
$7,100 18.92.7013.923.920.4%1.41
Geno
Smith
$7,300 17.62.3912.722.215.2%0.81
Brock
Purdy
$6,900 17.02.4711.922.214.9%0.94
Dak
Prescott
$7,500 16.32.1410.921.312.6%0.47
Russell
Wilson
$6,900 16.02.3011.220.610.8%0.65
Jared
Goff
$7,200 15.52.0910.320.29.5%0.42
Kenny
Pickett
$6,600 15.02.2110.019.78.5%0.58
Deshaun
Watson
$6,800 15.02.2610.019.810.0%0.56
Justin
Herbert
$7,500 14.71.9810.319.76.3%0.25
Sam
Ehlinger
$6,500 14.62.169.019.26.4%0.53
Andy
Dalton
$6,500 14.22.149.218.76.3%0.47
Kirk
Cousins
$7,700 14.11.899.619.06.5%0.18
Sam
Darnold
$6,800 13.72.039.218.56.7%0.35
Sam
Howell
$6,000 13.52.339.218.55.5%0.68
Desmond
Ridder
$6,300 13.32.098.518.04.5%0.45
Mac
Jones
$6,400 13.22.078.618.04.2%0.44
Skylar
Thompson
$6,400 13.22.038.517.54.7%0.36
Davis
Mills
$6,400 12.71.968.017.22.9%0.32
Joe
Flacco
$6,200 12.62.028.017.04.7%0.38
Baker
Mayfield
$6,300 12.41.988.117.33.4%0.36
Nathan
Peterman
$6,200 11.91.947.416.53.4%0.32
Tom
Brady
$7,200 11.51.586.715.92.1%0.07
Tyler
Huntley
$6,500 11.51.777.016.42.5%0.21
David
Blough
$6,300 11.21.786.915.51.5%0.18
Davis
Webb
$6,000 10.41.756.614.81.1%0.21

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Christian
McCaffrey
$10,000 18.41.8312.924.042.5%1.31
Kenneth
Walker
III
$7,700 15.11.929.820.025.0%1.51
Aaron
Jones
$7,400 14.81.969.319.924.5%1.57
Joe
Mixon
$7,500 14.21.869.119.623.5%1.37
Alvin
Kamara
$7,100 13.81.939.018.720.9%1.50
Najee
Harris
$7,200 13.71.858.318.620.0%1.28
Tyler
Allgeier
$6,500 13.42.078.418.115.4%1.87
Cam
Akers
$7,300 13.11.838.018.318.5%1.16
Dalvin
Cook
$8,000 12.91.647.917.815.6%0.72
Miles
Sanders
$6,700 12.91.937.717.516.6%1.39
David
Montgomery
$6,700 12.71.868.017.415.1%1.31
Nick
Chubb
$7,900 12.41.567.517.314.2%0.63
Austin
Ekeler
$9,400 11.91.247.815.99.2%0.13
Latavius
Murray
$6,400 11.81.807.016.411.5%1.16
Rhamondre
Stevenson
$6,600 11.61.797.315.910.2%1.03
Zack
Moss
$6,800 11.31.667.215.910.6%0.86
D'Andre
Swift
$7,100 10.91.586.516.09.8%0.66
Jonathan
Williams
$5,000 10.52.176.115.28.5%1.89
Tony
Pollard
$8,000 10.51.346.314.97.4%0.29
Jeff
Wilson
$6,200 10.41.715.814.86.4%0.81
Ezekiel
Elliott
$7,600 10.11.355.714.77.7%0.34
Cordarrelle
Patterson
$6,300 10.11.605.914.25.6%0.70
A.J.
Dillon
$6,900 10.01.545.714.87.4%0.56
Jamaal
Williams
$7,000 9.71.384.614.66.6%0.44
Raheem
Mostert
$6,800 9.31.334.913.33.7%0.34
Devin
Singletary
$6,300 9.31.474.713.13.2%0.46
D'Onta
Foreman
$6,500 8.81.354.613.34.6%0.42
Gary
Brightwell
$5,500 8.71.563.912.53.0%0.65
Zonovan
Knight
$6,200 8.61.384.213.03.7%0.46
James
Cook
$6,000 8.51.374.112.53.0%0.44
Royce
Freeman
$5,800 8.41.464.212.62.2%0.52
Khalil
Herbert
$5,800 8.31.414.312.42.8%0.51
Damien
Harris
$5,900 8.21.374.312.42.6%0.46
Matt
Breida
$6,300 8.21.324.512.32.2%0.36
Leonard
Fournette
$6,600 8.21.224.311.91.2%0.21
Gus
Edwards
$5,800 8.11.404.312.32.7%0.47
Chase
Edmonds
$5,600 8.11.423.811.92.7%0.49
Corey
Clement
$5,700 8.01.393.812.32.2%0.52
Rachaad
White
$6,500 7.71.213.711.82.1%0.26
Chuba
Hubbard
$6,100 7.61.253.712.42.7%0.38
Jaylen
Warren
$5,700 7.21.212.910.91.2%0.30
Dare
Ogunbowale
$5,600 6.21.092.49.91.1%0.23
Samaje
Perine
$6,400 6.10.922.19.80.2%0.11
DeeJay
Dallas
$5,300 5.61.062.49.20.7%0.20
Ty
Johnson
$5,300 5.61.011.99.00.5%0.18
Keaontay
Ingram
$5,500 5.51.001.69.10.2%0.14
Elijah
Mitchell
$5,000 5.51.030.89.31.7%0.31
Alexander
Mattison
$7,000 5.10.741.19.10.6%0.05
Jaret
Patterson
$4,500 5.01.051.48.20.1%0.27
Kenyan
Drake
$5,000 4.90.961.48.60.1%0.18
Joshua
Kelley
$5,400 4.60.861.28.30.0%0.11
Kareem
Hunt
$5,400 4.60.770.67.80.0%0.10
Kenneth
Gainwell
$5,200 4.50.790.67.80.1%0.13
Michael
Carter
$5,800 4.20.770.77.90.3%0.06
Jordan
Wilkins
$5,100 4.00.840.68.00.3%0.14

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
17.5+
%
Boom/
Bust
Ja'Marr
Chase
$8,500 14.81.689.219.833.9%0.91
Stefon
Diggs
$8,400 14.31.718.819.635.8%0.85
Justin
Jefferson
$9,000 13.91.548.818.831.7%0.52
A.J.
Brown
$8,300 13.91.667.819.233.4%0.78
Amon-Ra
St.
Brown
$8,000 13.51.719.617.926.3%0.87
Tyreek
Hill
$8,600 13.31.537.819.030.8%0.61
CeeDee
Lamb
$8,200 12.11.457.216.520.9%0.40
D.K.
Metcalf
$7,200 12.01.727.016.822.4%0.88
DeVonta
Smith
$7,700 11.81.496.516.220.5%0.53
Tee
Higgins
$7,800 11.51.496.616.520.3%0.50
D.J.
Moore
$7,300 11.31.536.316.419.9%0.61
Brandon
Aiyuk
$7,100 10.81.506.715.013.3%0.54
Amari
Cooper
$7,600 10.81.445.816.119.4%0.50
Drake
London
$6,500 10.61.636.314.912.8%0.78
Michael
Pittman
Jr.
$7,300 10.61.426.314.111.3%0.37
Tyler
Lockett
$6,900 10.61.585.715.214.8%0.61
Chris
Olave
$6,700 10.51.645.516.320.4%0.81
Allen
Lazard
$6,400 10.41.625.615.013.4%0.78
Diontae
Johnson
$6,300 10.41.605.714.513.7%0.69
Christian
Watson
$6,900 10.31.545.215.617.0%0.64
Garrett
Wilson
$7,100 10.31.435.115.015.2%0.47
Keenan
Allen
$7,500 10.21.366.214.411.5%0.31
Jerry
Jeudy
$6,600 10.21.595.514.715.2%0.66
Rashid
Shaheed
$5,800 10.01.775.714.512.4%0.97
Deebo
Samuel
$7,000 9.41.326.112.45.0%0.22
Gabriel
Davis
$6,400 9.31.484.514.113.3%0.56
Courtland
Sutton
$6,400 9.11.474.314.614.3%0.60
Jaylen
Waddle
$7,200 9.11.274.913.48.3%0.26
Marquise
Brown
$6,800 9.01.324.413.39.2%0.35
Mike
Williams
$7,400 9.01.235.013.19.9%0.23
Terry
McLaurin
$7,000 8.91.274.313.18.4%0.27
Brandin
Cooks
$6,200 8.51.384.812.77.5%0.47
Greg
Dortch
$5,400 8.01.495.011.51.8%0.52
Jahan
Dotson
$5,900 8.01.363.912.06.2%0.41
Tutu
Atwell
$5,300 7.91.463.312.99.8%0.65
Jakobi
Meyers
$6,500 7.71.113.711.33.6%0.19
Mike
Evans
$7,700 7.50.933.611.13.8%0.06
Romeo
Doubs
$5,600 7.51.323.811.12.8%0.37
Chris
Moore
$5,500 7.41.354.111.22.7%0.40
Chris
Godwin
$7,500 7.10.913.89.90.5%0.01
Donovan
Peoples-Jones
$6,300 7.01.152.911.12.5%0.22
George
Pickens
$5,900 6.91.232.611.75.5%0.32
Van
Jefferson
$6,000 6.91.112.310.75.7%0.27
Adam
Thielen
$6,100 6.91.113.410.11.5%0.16
Tyler
Boyd
$6,200 6.61.003.29.60.9%0.08
Parris
Campbell
$5,800 6.41.093.39.62.2%0.17
D.J.
Chark
$5,700 6.31.152.610.33.1%0.28
Michael
Gallup
$5,800 6.31.072.210.23.0%0.21
Isaiah
McKenzie
$5,300 6.31.153.19.20.7%0.20
Demarcus
Robinson
$5,600 6.11.102.69.83.1%0.20
Tyquan
Thornton
$5,400 6.01.122.210.12.2%0.28
Alec
Pierce
$5,500 6.01.102.09.91.7%0.23
K.J.
Osborn
$6,000 5.80.972.59.20.6%0.09
Corey
Davis
$5,600 5.71.002.09.21.7%0.16
Elijah
Moore
$5,200 5.51.102.18.81.0%0.22
Olamide
Zaccheaus
$5,200 5.41.062.49.20.8%0.20
Curtis
Samuel
$5,700 5.30.962.87.80.2%0.05
Noah
Brown
$5,300 5.20.961.88.30.7%0.13
Chase
Claypool
$5,600 5.00.820.88.71.2%0.13
Terrace
Marshall
Jr.
$5,500 4.90.821.08.20.4%0.10
Brandon
Powell
$4,900 4.81.022.47.30.0%0.07
Russell
Gage
$5,700 4.80.832.17.50.2%0.04
Randall
Cobb
$5,200 4.70.891.68.10.1%0.12
DeVante
Parker
$5,500 4.50.831.07.90.5%0.09
Richie
James
$5,900 4.50.741.97.00.0%0.01
Kalif
Raymond
$5,200 4.40.861.17.80.4%0.08
Isaiah
Hodgins
$6,100 4.40.711.77.10.0%0.01
Josh
Palmer
$5,900 4.40.691.27.50.1%0.04
Amari
Rodgers
$5,100 4.30.871.07.70.1%0.12
Laviska
Shenault
$5,100 4.20.892.17.10.0%0.05
Darius
Slayton
$6,000 4.10.701.17.20.1%0.02
Josh
Reynolds
$5,500 4.00.760.97.40.4%0.07
Quez
Watkins
$5,000 4.00.790.87.60.1%0.12

Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15+
%
Boom/
Bust
Mark
Andrews
$7,100 9.91.355.514.322.2%0.40
Dallas
Goedert
$6,200 9.41.575.514.121.4%0.70
George
Kittle
$7,600 9.31.235.013.418.4%0.21
T.J.
Hockenson
$7,200 8.91.245.012.613.5%0.18
Pat
Freiermuth
$5,500 8.51.554.512.614.2%0.70
Taysom
Hill
$7,000 8.51.265.812.110.3%0.18
Tyler
Higbee
$5,600 7.81.374.410.85.6%0.34
Dawson
Knox
$5,700 7.51.273.611.29.1%0.35
Dalton
Schultz
$6,500 7.41.113.810.96.4%0.13
Juwan
Johnson
$5,700 7.41.272.811.29.6%0.36
Hunter
Henry
$5,000 7.21.453.210.98.5%0.53
David
Njoku
$5,400 7.11.353.311.18.4%0.44
Cole
Kmet
$5,800 6.91.153.010.87.9%0.25
Trey
McBride
$5,100 6.71.343.410.36.3%0.40
Greg
Dulcich
$4,000 6.71.622.810.46.4%0.83
Jelani
Woods
$4,600 6.31.332.110.27.8%0.51
Hayden
Hurst
$5,300 5.91.102.39.23.2%0.20
Tyler
Conklin
$5,100 5.61.122.88.72.0%0.19
Noah
Fant
$5,100 5.31.052.18.83.3%0.21
Robert
Tonyan
$5,300 5.10.890.88.33.5%0.16
Logan
Thomas
$5,200 4.50.881.97.71.3%0.08
Gerald
Everett
$5,500 4.50.841.67.71.7%0.06
Jordan
Akins
$4,700 4.40.951.57.80.5%0.15
Isaiah
Likely
$4,800 4.20.820.87.10.5%0.11
Cade
Otton
$4,900 3.80.730.46.40.3%0.05
Mike
Gesicki
$4,800 3.40.710.07.01.8%0.15
Daniel
Bellinger
$4,700 3.10.680.65.80.0%0.03
Brock
Wright
$4,900 3.10.640.06.30.8%0.07