3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Wild Card Monday

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the NFL player props odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Which props stand out for Monday's Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup?

Leonard Fournette Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The angle here is that Leonard Fournette will see an increase in his snap rate and workload as we start the playoffs.

Even if he doesn't, the over makes sense.

Yes, the Bucs are 2.5-point underdogs and are a pass-heavy team, but if you look at the games since Fournette returned to the lineup, the case for the over is pretty clear.

Between Weeks 13 and 17, since Fournette came back to the lineup but excluding the Week 18 game with no implications for Tampa Bay, Fournette had a 54.7% snap rate along with 10.8 carries per game and 41.2 rushing yards per game.

Though that's barely above this prop line, we have reason to believe that Playoff Lenny will return in some form, as he was pulled from Week 18 well before Rachaad White (who has had a 44.2% snap rate between Weeks 13 and 17).

numberFire projects Fournette for 43.9 rushing yards and 10.7 carries.

Tony Pollard Any Time Touchdown (+185)

Another player whose role could expand in the playoffs is Tony Pollard.

If you look at games for the Cowboys with everyone relevant healthy but since the Pollard breakout and Ezekiel Elliott's return to his typical role (i.e. Weeks 12 through 16), we've still seen good numbers for Pollard.

Pollard has out-snapped Elliott in this sample (53.3% to 50.4%), and that snap rate is also tied to a viable 31.3% red zone rushing share and a 16.1% red zone target share.

Yes, the Buccaneers are -- overall -- a good rush defense, but they've been vulnerable to explosive plays on the ground, as evidenced by a rushing-yards-over-expectation-per-carry rate of +0.55 allowed to running backs. That ranks 24th in the league.

Pollard is projected for 0.45 scrimmage touchdowns by numberFire, and my numbers have his expected touchdown odds at +155.

Dalton Schultz Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

While the Cowboys are getting healthier on offense, Dalton Schultz remains a significant piece of the puzzle.

In five games with the Dallas running backs both settled into their current roles and with the pass-catchers healthy (again, Weeks 12 through 16), Schultz has maintained a 17.2% target share, which works out to 5.6 targets per game. That comes with a solid average target depth of 8.9 yards.

He's sporting a really poor catch rate over expectation of -9.1% in this span -- but is still averaging 3.4 catches and 41.8 yards per game in this particular split.

So, that yardage alone would get him there even if the catch rate is down.

But as for the matchup itself, the Buccaneers are allowing a catch rate over expectation of +4.5% to opposing tight ends, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Schultz should be more efficient on his targets on Monday, and even if he isn't, he has still been averaging a tick above this prop anyway.

numberFire's model projects Schultz for 40.7 yards.