NFL Betting Guide: Wild Card Sunday
The NFL playoffs begin this weekend, and as one would expect, Sunday carries the most action.
This day carries three games. The Dolphins will meet the Bills for the third time this season at 1 p.m. Eastern, and the Giants and Vikings will rematch their Week 16 clash in the afternoon. The nightcap features a pair of divisional foes, too; Baltimore will be right back in Cincinnati a week after largely punting their Week 18 tilt.
Using NFL odds and totals from FanDuel Sportsbook, where can we find value from these contests?
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Bills -13.5 (-115) - Lean
Under 43.5 (-115) - 1.0 Unit
This one had the makings of an epic clash given the Dolphins' explosive offense, but it's all but squashed now.
Tua Tagovailoa won't play for Miami due to a concussion, and Teddy Bridgewater is prepping for Sunday but will not start. It'll be rookie Skylar Thompson taking first-team reps and starting this one.
Thompson has posted an abysmal -0.23 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back this season. In the four weeks that he's seen significant action, Miami's -0.07 Offensive NEP per play overall only bested Carolina and Houston in those weeks.
This is a poor offense when he's at the helm. Facing numberFire's sixth-best defensive unit in Buffalo, this week is set up as a disaster for them. It's also not as if numberFire's 13th-worst defensive unit likely won't cede points to Josh Allen and company in a winner-take-all setting.
My lone concern with the spread is that we've seen Allen (19 turnovers this season) give the ball away, and one or two key mistakes could hand over the points needed to cover this lofty amount.
Sporting the slowest average situation-neutral pace of the weekend, my favorite bet is the under here. I never actively want to take spreads this large in the NFL, but if it was ever warranted, it would be here in a playoff atmosphere where one team has a clear advantage on both sides of the ball.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Bills 27-13
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Vikings -3.0 (-106) - 1.0 Unit
Over 48.5 (-104) - Lean
For all of the bellyaching about the Vikings as frauds with a -3 point differential, save it for a future week. The Giants' point differential is -6. Neither team is elite.
I just have a hard time seeing anything but Minnesota winning this matchup comfortably. Keep in mind, the Vikings took losses to Philadelphia, Dallas, and Green Bay by a combined 78 points. They had a +75 point differential against all others like the Giants, who pushed a three-point spread in Week 16 versus Minny thanks to a late rally.
They're a phenomenal matchup for the G-Men on paper. The one thing their defense does remotely well is stop the rush. They're 13th-best in that category, per our nERD ranks.
Shutting down Saquon Barkley is all it will take to easily cover this spread. Daniel Jones posted a below-average 0.06 Passing NEP per drop back in games where Barkley failed to eclipse 80 rushing yards. This is also Jones' first playoff game, and first-time playoff quarterbacks facing experienced ones are 18-36-1 ATS since 2001.
Overall, these are not playoff-caliber defenses on both sides, though. The Giants are our sixth-worst overall unit, largely struggling with the rush. The Vikes are 13th-worst with issues defending the pass. Combine that with an above-average situation-neutral pace, and the over seems like the correct direction.
It's just a lean for me, though. I'm not discounting a Danny Dimes meltdown in this spot.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Vikings 28-21
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Ravens +8.5 (-105) - 1.5 Units
Under 40.5 (-110) - 0.5 Units
This is my favorite game throughout the weekend. I'm glad it landed on Sunday.
To no one's surprise, 81% of bets and 85% of the money are backing Cincinnati in this spot. After all, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase easily dispatched the Ravens last week, and they're the healthier squad entering this matchup.
However, Baltimore mailed in Sunday's game. They rested Tyler Huntley, Mark Andrews, and others. Yet, they still had a shot to cover the 10-point spread late despite three Anthony Brown giveaways. Even though it's likely Lamar Jackson won't play again this week, the Ravens will put a better offense onto the field for this contest.
The Ravens' defense is arguably the second-best one left behind San Francisco. Since acquiring Roquan Smith in Week 9, they've allowed the second-fewest points per game (13.1) and posted the fourth-best Offensive NEP per play allowed (-0.02) in that span. New England and Washington were better but aren't playing anymore.
Of course, they've also scored only 11 offensive touchdowns (second-fewest) in this same span, so if they cover, it'll be an uglier, low-scoring contest against a Bengals defense that's eighth in our nERD ranks themselves. That's why the under is a logical, correlated wager.
At the very least, I can rest my head on my pillow Sunday night knowing I got maximum value with Baltimore this weekend. The public is infatuated with Cincy after Joe Brr's legendary playoff run a year ago.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Bengals 22-16
