3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Divisional Round Saturday
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Dallas Goedert Any Time Touchdown (+200)
Dallas Goedert Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Divisional Round gets started on Saturday and there are some great player props to consider.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 8.5-point home favorites against the New York Giants, a matchup of two long-time rivals with a trip to the conference championship on the line. Given what we've seen from the Giants throughout the season and just last week against the Minnesota Vikings, we could be seeing a big game from Dallas Goedert.
The Eagles have a 28.00 implied team total, so I like Goedert (+200) to score a touchdown, and the matchup should allow him to also hit over 51.5 receiving yards (-114). So, let's dig into everything.
The Giants struggled against opposing tight ends during the regular season and allowed the 10th-most (922) receiving yards to the position. We saw that on full display last week when T.J. Hockenson racked up 10 receptions for 129 yards.
This should put Goedert in a good spot considering throughout the regular season he held a 19.2% target share, 13.9% air yards share, and 25.0% red zone target share, all while playing on 90.0% of the snaps and running a route on 83.0% of drop backs.
A solid offensive role for a player in a favorable matchup should allow him to hit the over on his yardage prop and have a clear shot to make it into the end zone this weekend.
Isiah Pacheco Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-122)
When it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs' backfield, we don't always have a clear answer on who the main option is, and that offers some value in the prop market.
If no one single player is going to see the majority of the touches in the backfield, we have an opportunity to take some unders. This starts with Isiah Pacheco and under 12.5 rushing attempts (-122) against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
We will likely see Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon as the main two backs for the Chiefs because Clyde Edwards-Helaire is unlikely to be activated from injured reserve. If we look at the final seven weeks of the season when CEH was out, McKinnon led the backs by playing on 46.9% of snaps, Pacheco right behind him at 44.1% of snaps, and even Ronald Jones got in the mix at 10.4% of snaps.
Neither McKinnon nor Pacheo truly grabbed the lead of the backfield, and that lack of playing time can lead to few touches, which leads to unders on props. A lack of rushing attempts isn't too much of a surprise for the Chiefs because they ended the regular season with a 61.88% pass play percentage, which was the eighth-highest in the league.
When you have a great quarterback, you pass the ball more. Pretty simple.
The backfield for the Chiefs is unclear at times and they aren't a run-heavy team to begin with. This has Pacheco projected for 11.90 rushing attempts, which has him hitting the under this week.
