Biggest NFL Playoff Odds Movers: Week 16

Well, here we are. Since you won’t need me to tell you who made the playoffs next week, this will be the final playoff odds report of the season.

It’s pretty fitting then, that the Jets are on top of the “winners” section this week, given that they have been one of the five biggest winners or losers in terms of playoff odds in all but two of these features.

Facing the very real prospect of going 11-5 and missing the playoffs before Sunday, the Jets beat the Patriots and were the beneficiaries of Pittsburgh’s shocking loss to Baltimore.

This turn of events leaves Pittsburgh as the biggest losers of the week in terms of playoff odds, as the Steelers only have a 37.1% chance of making the playoffs. They rank fifth in our power ratings, but need a win on Sunday at Cleveland and a Jets loss at Buffalo to make the playoffs.

Winners

New York Jets (10-5)

Playoff Odds Movement: +32.1%
Week 16 Result: Def. New England, 26-20
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 30.8%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 62.9%

The improbable results on Sunday have gifted the Jets the simplest of roads to the postseason: win in Buffalo and you’re in.

This won’t be an easy game, though. While the Jets are the eighth-best team in our power ratings and would be expected to beat an average team by 4.77 points on a neutral field, Buffalo is 12th (+1.46) and has home field advantage.

The folks in Vegas currently have the Jets as three-point favorites, but this game could be a tighter one than even that slim spread suggests.

If the Jets lose, they can still get in if Pittsburgh loses to the Browns.

Washington Redskins (8-7)

Playoff Odds Movement: +31.4%
Week 16 Result: Def. Philadelphia, 38-24
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 68.6%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 100%

Washington’s win on Saturday against the Eagles clinched the NFC East for Kirk Cousins and company, sealing a playoff berth that seemed unlikely before the year.

The squad is now locked into the 4 seed in the NFC, regardless of whether they win or lose on Sunday against Dallas.

Denver Broncos (11-4)

Playoff Odds Movement: +12.4%
Week 16 Result: Def. Cincinnati, 20-17
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 87.6%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 100%

Thanks to their win over the Bengals on Monday Night Football, we know the Broncos will be in the playoffs.

As for where they will be seeded, that’s a different story.

A win against San Diego or a Kansas City loss to Oakland would secure the AFC West for Denver. A Broncos win would also clinch a first-round bye, and a victory coupled with a Patriots loss to Miami would give Denver the top seed in the conference.

If the Broncos instead the clinch the division after losing to the Chargers thanks to a Chiefs loss, Denver would probably be the 3 seed, unless Baltimore upsets the Bengals (which would then put the Broncos at number two).

A Denver loss and Chiefs win would leave the Broncos as a wild card team. In this event, a Jets win would leave Denver as the 6 seed, while a Jets loss would put them fifth.

Houston Texans (8-7)

Playoff Odds Movement: +12.3%
Week 16 Result: Def. Tennessee, 34-6
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 87.5%
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 99.8%

With a win against Tennessee, the Texans all but wrapped up the AFC South and can officially win the division with a win on Sunday against Jacksonville.

Even if Houston loses and second-place Indianapolis wins. though, the Colts and Texans would have identical overall records, head-to-head record, conference records and records against common opponents.

The next tiebreakers would be strength of victory and strength of schedule, where the Colts need results in seven different games to break their way to prevail and knockout Houston.

Breathe easy though, Texans fans. If Week 17 played out 1,000 times, by our numbers, Houston would win 998 AFC South championships.

Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)

Playoff Odds Movement: +8.3%
Week 16 Result: Def. Cleveland, 17-13
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 91.7%
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 100%

The hottest team in the league clinched a playoff berth and can win the AFC West next week with a win and Denver loss.

If the Broncos do win, the Chiefs can secure the 5 seed with a win or Jets loss.

A Chiefs loss coupled with a Jets win would make Kansas City the 6 seed.

Losers

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)

Playoff Odds Movement: -52.8%
Week 16 Result: Lost to Baltimore, 20-17
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 89.9%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 37.1%

A loss at the hands of the Ryan Mallett-led Baltimore Ravens leaves Pittsburgh in a precarious position. As mentioned, the Steelers need a win and a Jets loss to make the playoffs.

The odds of another upset loss seem unlikely, given that our nERD ratings rate Pittsburgh as 8.14 points above average, while the Browns are 5.05 points below average. Assuming Cleveland gets three points for being a home, our numbers imply Pittsburgh should be about a 10-point favorite, which is what the Vegas line is.

A win would still leave them at the mercy of the Buffalo-New York result though, making it more likely than not that one of the league’s best teams is watching the playoffs from the couch.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-9)

Playoff Odds Movement: -26.2%
Week 16 Result: Lost to Washington, 38-24
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 26.2%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 0.0%

The Eagles came into the weekend in control of their own destiny, as wins in their final two games would clinch a second division title in three years.

Instead, Philadelphia fell to Washington, bringing an end to both the season and the Chip Kelly era.

Indianapolis Colts (7-8)

Playoff Odds Movement: -8.9%
Week 16 Result: Def. Miami, 18-12
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 9.1%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 0.2%

The Charlie Whitehurst-led Colts beat the Dolphins in Week 16, but thanks to Houston’s win in Tennessee, the Josh Freeman (?)-led Colts will need a ton of help in Week 17 to make the playoffs.

A win against the Titans and a Houston loss would bring the division down to the aforementioned strength of victory and strength of schedule tiebreakers. For the Colts to prevail they will need:

-A Pittsburgh win over Cleveland
-A Denver win over San Diego
-An Atlanta win over New Orleans
-A Buffalo win over the Jets
-A Miami win over New England
-A Baltimore win over Cincinnati
-An Oakland win over Kansas City.

If just one of these things does not happen, Indianapolis will get a headstart on what promises to be an eventful offseason.

New York Giants (6-9)

Playoff Odds Movement: -5.2%
Week 16 Result: Lost to Minnesota, 49-17
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 5.2%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 0.0%

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)

Playoff Odds Movement: -3.4%
Week 16 Result: Lost to New Orleans, 38-27
Playoff Odds Before Week 16: 3.4%
Playoff Odds After Week 16: 0.0%

Both teams were eliminated before the kickoff of their Week 16 games, despite entering the weekend with nominal playoff chances.

The Giants were done in by Washington’s victory over Philadelphia, while Houston’s victory sealed the deal for the Jaguars.

Even if New York won their final two games and Washington fell to Dallas in Week 17, Washington would win the tiebreaker between the 8-8 clubs via a superior conference record.

Jacksonville’s only hopes involved finishing in a tie atop the AFC South at 7-9, and Houston getting an eighth win removed this possibility.