Updated Super Bowl Odds: The Packers Are Long Shots
We're down to eight teams in the NFL playoffs, but not without controversy.
Pittsburgh snuck by Cincinnati thanks to a late-game Jeremy Hill fumbled and two personal foul calls, and the end of that Saturday night game is still being talked about all over social media today.
The Steelers' victory was a big one according to our analytics. As you can see in the table below, they currently have the fourth best odds of not just winning their conference, but the Super Bowl as well.
| Team | Conf Champ % | Super Bowl % |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 40.24% | 25.19% |
| Carolina Panthers | 29.57% | 16.55% |
| New England Patriots | 28.80% | 12.54% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 26.41% | 12.53% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 20.09% | 11.58% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 22.92% | 9.99% |
| Denver Broncos | 21.87% | 7.32% |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.10% | 4.30% |
Per our numbers, Pittsburgh's chances of winning the Super Bowl are just 0.01% lower than New England's, the AFC's 2 seed. Much of that has to do with the fact that our numbers think the Steelers are better -- they have a nERD of 8.48, while New England's is 6.96. (This, too, assumes a healthy Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown.) For those unfamiliar, nERD represents the number of points our algorithm would expect a team to win by against an average squad on a neutral field.
The worst team remaining in the playoffs, according to nERD, is Green Bay, who enter the second round of the playoffs with a 3.10 score. That's 10th best in the NFL, but worse than the Bengals and Jets, two teams out of the playoffs.
As a result, Green Bay's chances of winning the Super Bowl sit at a low 4.30%. It doesn't help that the NFC is stacked with the three nERD-iest teams in football, either.
