NHL Playoffs: Second Round Preview
St. Louis Blues vs. Nashville Predators
In a series not many saw coming, we get a matchup between the Nashville Predators and the St. Louis Blues.
For this to come about, we had to see the demise of two of the top teams in the NHL, and two of the top teams in our nERD metric, the Chicago Blackhawks and the Minnesota Wild. In fact, the Predators became the first 8 seed in professional sports history to knock out a 1 seed via sweep.
So who stands taller in this series between two teams that were expected to go home after the first two weeks?
It's Pekka Time
The biggest factor to the immense success of the Predators in Round 1 was goaltender Pekka Rinne. He showed the fans in Smashville what it truly means to be elite under pressure, starting the series with two straight shutouts in one of the toughest buildings for road teams -- the United Center.
Pekka continued to dazzle from there. In the opening round, he led the Western Conference (and all goalies, for that matter) in the three major recorded categories by the NHL -- posting a remarkable .976 save percentage, 0.70 goals against average, and just three goals against for the entire series.
If Rinne can continue in this fashion, it won't matter what Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, and Ryan Johansen do if Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane couldn't get it done.
The Blues Go Marching In
After trading Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, it seemed like the Blues weren't going to be contenders this season. In fact, our models gave Minnesota the most lopsided probability to advance in the first round, projecting the Wild to win that series nearly 62% of the time.
But in some fashion, St. Louis came out on top. Surprisingly enough, the bulk of the scoring prowess seen by St. Louis in these playoffs has not come from All-Star left winger Vladimir Tarasenko but rather from some guys in background roles -- Jaden Schwartz and Alex Steen. The two find themselves 4th and 13th in the Western Conference postseason scoring race, with Tarasenko being the next closest Blue way back in 29th place.
If the Blues can continue receiving some secondary scoring as well getting Tarasenko on track, it's not hard to imagine the team finding success in this second-round matchup. But that's not to say that the play of Blues' netminder Jake Allen will not come to play, as he ranked second among West goalies in the playoffs in save percentage (.956), goals against average (1.46), and goals allowed (8).
The Verdict
In five games this season, the Predators won three while the Blues took two. However, four of these five games all took place before the beginning of 2017, which only further shows the unpredictability of this series as a whole.
In their only matchup in 2017, St. Louis skated away with a 4-1 victory. With two goaltenders playing at the level that they are currently, we may see a series filled with low-scoring thrillers.
Our nERD metric has these two teams deadlocked in eighth place, each being expected to defeat an average opponent by 0.24 goals per game at a neutral site. The Blues are slight favorites as our models give them a 51.59% chance to win the series. This is the closest of any of the four series, and we could see seven games in this one.
