NHL Playoffs: Conference Final Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
The Pittsburgh Penguins surprised nobody with their series victory over the Washington Capitals, while the Ottawa Senators surprised almost everybody with their series victory against the New York Rangers.
How do these two teams stack up against one another?
A Fleury of Goaltending
Pittsburgh has a clear goaltending advantage. Marc-Andre Fleury has solidified his spot as the Penguins' top goaltender, despite Matt Murray now dressing as the backup. Through two series, Fleury has shown periodic flashes of brilliance and has earned his place in the cage.
In 12 games played, he posted a .927 save percentage and a 2.55 goals against average, but has allowed the second-most goals of any goaltender left standing. Conversely, his opponent, Craig Anderson, has allowed the most (32) while posting a .914 save percentage and a 2.49 goals against average.
As shown by the 34 goals scored by Ottawa and 41 scored by Pittsburgh, both teams can score and both can skate, so these stats show us that goaltending may not be a huge hot-button topic in this series. Jake Guentzel alone scored nine of Pittsburgh's tallies this campaign.
The Erik Karlsson Effect
More so than almost anybody on either roster, Erik Karlsson possesses the ability to turn this series on its head.
He's scored 13 points in 12 postseason games, and his two goals came against the Rangers, both of which were game-winners. As goes Karlsson, so go the Sens.
The Verdict
Our nERD metric tells us that Pittsburgh is the best team remaining with a 0.71 rating, meaning they're expected to win a game on neutral ice by an average of 0.71 goals.
With a nERD of 0.02, Ottawa is the clear underdog in this series -- much like they were against New York. But when a team gets hot, magic can happen.
In their season series, Ottawa took two of three, but our metrics see between the lines of the Senators' Cinderella season and give Pittsburgh a heavy advantage.
They are projected to win the series a whopping 68.85% of the time, and have a 43.98% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
