NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 2/22/21
Hockey is officially back! NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Semyon Varlamov ($8,100): As a -172 home favorite, Varlamov from the New York Islanders is a great spot to look for a goalie tonight. Varlamov is confirmed as the starting goalie tonight and in a fantastic spot versus the Buffalo Sabres. To say the Sabres have a weak offense would be putting it nicely. Right now, the Sabres are holding the sixth-lowest (49.13) Corsi For (Shot Attempts Created) and are the league-worst (1.43) in goals scored, both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
The Sabres offer very little threat on offense, which should put Varlamov in a spot for the easy victory, but it also means that he won't be racking up a ton of saves tonight. This is a clear trade-off, taking the safety of the win points, at the cost of potential upside. Varlamov has allowed 27 goals through 13 games this season and has picked up 7 wins along the way.
High-Priced Skaters
Mitch Marner ($8,300): The Toronto Maple Leafs come in with a slate-high 3.52 implied goal total, and you should be looking directly to their top forward line. Listen, paying up for Auston Matthews ($9,200) is a fantastic idea, but holy smokes, he is very expensive. If you don't have the salary available, look to Marner, who is on the first forward line and first power-play alongside Matthews.
Marner comes into this game with 30 real NHL points in 19 games, along with 47 shots on goal or 2.47 per game. The Maple Leafs lead the league with 2.96 goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations and are one of the best options tonight or any single slate they are on.
Mathew Barzal ($6,800): Even though Barzal is underperforming a bit this season, you want to look in his direction tonight. I say "underperforming a bit" because Barzal has 15 NHL points through 17 games this season, which is lower than you'd expect from the center on a first forward line and first power-play unit. Regardless, Barzal is in a good spot as a home favorite (-172) tonight versus a weak Sabres team.
The Sabres are allowing over 3.00 goals per game this season, and the Islanders should be able to achieve that tonight with their 3.05 implied goal total. Barzal sees plenty of ice time per game and should be able to get on the score sheet tonight after being held off for the past three games.
Value Skaters
Justin Faulk ($4,400): The St. Louis Blues have a very solid 3.11 implied goal total tonight, and you should want to get exposure to their offense tonight. Faulk is skating on the second power-play for the Blues, which has helped him pick up 5 goals, 3 assists, and 47 shots on goal this season. He also comes in with 20 blocked shots this season, giving him a solid floor of points on a nightly basis. The Blues are taking on the Los Angeles Kings, who are allowing the eighth-most (2.54) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season.
Kirill Kaprizov ($4,600): The Russian rookie is off to a strong start this season with 11 NHL points in 14 games, along with 24 shots on goal. Those numbers should only increase tonight with a soft matchup against the San Jose Sharks, who are in the bottom seven of the league in both Corsi Against and goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They truly have a terrible defense, and with Kaprizov on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, he should have plenty of opportunities to rack up the points tonight.
