NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 4/5/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Connor Hellebuyck ($7,500): Hellebuyck is simply way too cheap tonight and should be a borderline lock in all formats. Hellebuyck is confirmed as the starter and comes in as a -215 home favorite against the Ottawa Senators, who are one of the worst teams in the league. The goalie comes in with three wins in his last five starts, while allowing two goals or fewer in four of those five games. I say this with very little hesitation, Hellebuyck should be the most expensive goalie on tonight's slate. He is the largest favorite on the slate, facing the worst team on the slate, and yet, is $1,100 cheaper than the most expensive goalie.
High-Salaried Skaters
Nathan MacKinnon ($9,100): There are a number of top-tier centers on tonight's slate, but MacKinnon is the one you should be focusing on rostering. Over his last five games, he has 8 NHL points and 22 shots on goal, which has been good for 20 FanDuel points or more four times. Compare him to someone like Connor McDavid ($8,900), who has 8 NHL points and 14 shots on goal in his last five games, while going past 20 FanDuel points only once.
The matchup is also significantly better for MacKinnon against the Minnesota Wild, who are allowing a 59.47 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league. The Colorado Avalanche and MacKinnon come in with a 3.09 implied goal total tonight, which can be easily exceeded given the power they have on offense. That power is highlighted by their league-best (64.10) Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Kyle Connor ($6,400): The Winnipeg Jets should be one of the chalkiest teams tonight with their slate-high 3.77 implied goal total against the Senators. Connor is skating on the first forward line and the first power-play unit -- both of which make great stacking options -- which will make him viable in all formats. Over his last 10 games, Connor has piled up 8 NHL points and 37 shots on goal, which should only continue to increase tonight.
The Senators are third-worst (59.30) when it comes to Corsi Against while being last in the league when it comes to goals allowed (3.28), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. You simply stack the Jets tonight and sit back.
Value Skaters
Eric Staal ($3,900): The Montreal Canadiens' newly acquired Eric Staal will make his debut with his new team tonight and a clear value play. Staal is expected to be on the third forward line, which is okay, but more importantly, he is expected to be on the first power-play unit for the Canadiens. While Staal doesn't have a ton of flashy stats from his time with the Buffalo Sabres this season, he is under $4,000 and on the first power-play for a team with the second-highest (3.42) implied goal total tonight.
Matthew Grzelcyk ($4,300): Grzelcyk is the defender on the first power-play unit for the Boston Bruins, giving him some serious upside. Anytime you can get cheap exposure to one of the best power-plays in the league, you should be looking to lock him into your lineups. The Bruins have a 3.06 implied goal total tonight versus the Philadelphia Flyers, but that could be on the low end. Four of the five matchups between these two teams this season have hit the over, according to KillerSports. If this game is going to feature a ton of scoring, Grzelcyk has a clear path to upside at his salary.
