NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 10/26/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Darcy Kuemper ($8,400): The Colorado Avalanche are heavy -180 home favorites versus a depleted Vegas Golden Knights lineup. Vegas is still without both Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, leaving their lineup a bit weak overall and lacking a true offensive threat.
This puts Kuemper in a solid spot to not only come away with the win but do so relatively easily. He comes in with 29 saves or more in three of his four games this season, providing a solid floor of points which is good for any type of lineup.
The Colorado defense is also due for some positive regression, as they are allowing 3.44 goals against (GA) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-worst in the league.
We compare that to their Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the same situations, which is at 2.26 per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (18th). Their defense is much better than what they are currently showing, and with a weak offense in front of them, it could start trending in the right direction tonight.
High-Priced Skaters
Mikko Rantanen ($8,300): With a slate-high 3.36 implied goal total, the Avalanche and their top line is an elite option tonight. A high implied goal total, a heavy home favorite, and a high ceiling of fantasy points are what makes Rantanen -- and the rest of the Avalanche top line -- one of the best options on the slate. You should expect them to be super chalky tonight since they are fully correlated on the top forward line and the top power-play unit.
That offensive role has allowed Rantanen to rack up 5 NHL points and 19 shots on goal through only five games this season. The Golden Knights hold the third-worst (62.33) Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, so expect Rantanen and the Avs' offense to generate plenty of chances tonight.
Kirill Kaprizov ($7,400): Kaprizov finally gets his first goal of the season tonight versus the Vancouver Canucks. Kaprizov won the Calder Trophy last year -- the rookie of the year award -- and did so in large part to his 27 goals in just 55 games. He has yet to find the back of the net this season, but his 13 shots on goal through five games are an encouraging sign that he is still looking to create offensive chances.
His role on the first forward line and the first power-play for the Minnesota Wild is super secure, and he should look to take advantage of that versus the Canucks. This season, the Canucks are allowing 13.56 High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-worst in the league. It's a great matchup for him to get on the score sheet for the first time this year.
Value Skaters
Paul Stastny ($3,800): The Winnipeg Jets have two of their top forwards -- Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler -- in the league's COVID protocol, which has changed their forward lines. Stastny is now skating on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, which is a substantial offensive role for a player under $4,000.
He has a great matchup against the Anaheim Ducks, who are allowing the second-most (63.32) shot attempts per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. This should allow Stastny to generate a strong floor of points versus a weak defense.
Yanni Gourde ($4,200): Gourde is a clear value on tonight's slate given his offensive role and his salary -- it's really that simple. Gourde is the center on the first forward line and the first power-play for the Seattle Kraken, who hold a 2.85 implied goal total tonight. It's only a single point and four shots on goal for Gourde through two games, but with the Montreal Canadiens allowing 3.3 goals per game this season, he's in a spot to get the offense going tonight.
