NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 10/28/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Craig Anderson ($6,700): Are the Buffalo Sabres...good? With four wins in their first six games, the Sabres are impressing everyone after being projected to be one of the worst teams in the entire league. While they may come crashing down to earth at some point in the season, they can continue their strong start tonight against the Anaheim Ducks -- a team you don't need to fear.
The Ducks come in with a 50.75 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-lowest in the league. They are also only scoring a league-average 2.23 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They don't generate a ton of offensive chances, and they aren't scoring a lot of goals. This should play well for Anderson, as the Sabres are holding a 51.24 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 10th-best mark in the league.
The Sabres' defense is surprisingly strong to start the season, and given the weaker offense on the other side, Anderson is in a spot to come away with his fourth win of the season.
High-Priced Skaters
Vladimir Tarasenko ($7,500): The St. Louis Blues are being overlooked tonight. I'm not sure how a 5-0 Blues team is a home underdog (+110) against the 2-4 Colorado Avalanche. Yes, I know Colorado is a much better team than they are currently showing, but the Blues are looking great right now, and they have Tarasenko back and playing at a high level.
He enters with six NHL points through five games along with a whopping 26 shots on goal. That is a very high floor of points on a nightly basis, and his role on the first power-play unit gives him a ceiling to reach. He should have a chance this evening since the Avs are in the bottom-12 of the league in both Corsi Against and Goals Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. If the Avs are struggling right now, and the Blues aren't going to be super chalky, I'm looking to Tarasenko in all formats tonight.
Brayden Point ($7,600): The Tampa Bay Lightning are massive -320 home favorites tonight against the Arizona Coyotes, and we should expect them to be super chalky. Looking to Point is one of the easiest choices on the slate, as he is the first-line center on the large favorite. It feels similar in NFL daily fantasy in going with a home running back who is a large favorite. We know his role will be consistent, we know he is in a spot to contribute on offense, and we know he has a great matchup.
Point anchors the top forward line and the top power-play unit for the Lightning, who hold a slate-high 3.74 implied goal total. Point has only four NHL points through seven games this season, but given the soft matchup, he should be able to add to that total.
Value Skaters
Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4,000): The Carolina Hurricanes are carrying a 3.18 implied goal total tonight and could be in for a high-scoring game versus the Boston Bruins. The over/under is set at 6.0, and with both teams in the top half of the league in goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, the scoring could be prevalent tonight. Kotkaniemi is a solid value with his role on the second forward line and the second power-play unit. A modest two points in five games this season isn't amazing, but getting budget exposure to the higher-scoring games is always valuable.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,500): With a 6.5 over/under, any and all options from the Flyers at Canucks game should be in play. We can find value with OEL, who is quietly putting together a strong start to the season. Only two points in seven games are nothing to write home about, but 28 shots on goal and 5 blocked shots are awesome. The peripheral stats should allow him to reach fantasy value in this spot, and any extra scoring is an added bonus.
