NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 12/30/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in to take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Antti Raanta ($8,000): As massive -400 home favorites, plenty of people will be looking to Raanta from the Carolina Hurricanes tonight. Whenever we see a moneyline this high, we can look to the goalie in net since we have a very high win expectation and is safe for cash games. Raanta has only played in seven games this season but has allowed three goals or fewer in every game. The matchup against the Montreal Canadiens is a great one since they come in scoring only 1.94 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-lowest in the league.
High-Priced Skaters
Johnny Gaudreau ($6,900): The Calgary Flames have a solid 3.22 implied goal total and should be one of the most popular teams tonight. They are on road to take on the Seattle Kraken, who come in allowing 3.15 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, putting them dead last in the league. The Flames are scoring the 13th most goals (2.44) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations but are actually due for some positive regression since their Expected Goals Scored (xGF) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations is sitting at 2.61, which would put them as the seventh-highest team in the league.
This is why we want to look to Gaudreau, who is on the top forward line and the top power-play unit for the Flames, a spot we can look for stacking tonight. Gaudreau comes in with 9 NHL points and 33 shots on goal in his last 10 games, showing he is a main option for the Flames and helping drive their offense.
Aleksander Barkov ($8,500): With a 6.5 over/under, the Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers game is a spot to target for plenty of offense. The Lightning are likely going to be down to their third-string goalie -- Maxime Lagace -- again because their top two goalies are in the league's COVID protocol. The Panthers are scoring 3.12 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, which is the third-best in the league, and they shouldn't have any issues scoring versus Lagace.
Barkov has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries but has piled up 18 NHL points in 17 games this season and has a total of 49 shots on goal. If this game is going to hit the over on 6.5 goals, you can expect Barkov to be involved in that scoring.
Value Skaters
Kieffer Bellows ($3,700): The New York Islanders are going to be without a number of players tonight, and that should open up some extra chances for Bellows. It's likely that we see Bellows on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, which puts him in a good spot since the Islanders have the fourth-highest (3.20) implied goal total tonight. They are taking on the Buffalo Sabres, who are allowing the seventh-most (2.82) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, putting them in a good spot.
Corey Perry ($4,200): Perry offers a bit of value on the Tampa Bay side of things if you are looking to get extra exposure to this higher total game versus the Panthers. Perry, surprisingly, has 8 NHL points and 24 shots on goal in his last 10 games, a noticeable amount of production from what is normally a depth player. His role on the third forward line and second power-play unit are modest, but the game environment overall is the most intriguing aspect tonight.
