NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 1/5/22
Favorites went off on Tuesday's slate with seven of the eight betting chalk options winning outright. With COVID-19 impacting the NHL landscape, we only have two games on Wednesday's slate. However, according to our projections, there are still edges in both games.
These are the wagers from our daily projections!
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers
Oilers +1.5 (+104): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Edmonton Oilers are contending with lineup issues as they deal with injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak. Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie, and Derek Ryan were all added to the COVID-19 list while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was sent to the injured reserve ahead of tonight's contest against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Still, there are a few indicators that suggest that tonight's contest will be closer than the betting market implies.
The Oilers have put forward some strong performances recently, putting up an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in seven straight games. The Oilers have only two wins in that span, implying that they are positive regression candidates over their coming games.
Toronto has been less successful analytically over their recent stretch, getting outplayed in two of their past three. We've also seen more sincere defensive efforts from the Leafs recently, with opponents attempting nine or fewer quality chances in six of their past eight, and 23 or fewer scoring opportunities in four straight.
It's not every day that bettors get plus-money on an underdog puck line. The Oilers are putting together cohesive efforts, and the Leafs have been playing a tighter checking brand of hockey over their recent stretch. That leaves an edge in backing the Oilers to cover +1.5 against the Leafs, as per our projections.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. St. Louis Blues
Over 6 (-112): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Pittsburgh Penguins host the St. Louis Blues in an inter-conference battle on Wednesday night. Both offenses are flying high, and that should lead to a high-scoring affair at the PPG Paints Arena.
The Pens are coming off an eight-goal performance in their first game back to action, but their solid offensive metrics date back further. Across all strengths, the Penguins have put forward 12 or more high-danger chances in five of their past eight, and they've gone north of 17 opportunities in two of their past three games. Scoring chances are also up; Pittsburgh has attempted 114 over their previous three contests.
The Blues also have some offensive metrics propping them up. They've attempted 10 or more high-danger chances in four of their past five games -- scoring four or more goals in all but one of those games. That has resulted in an inflated shooting percentage, with the Blues finding the back of the net on 13.6% of their shots over the five-game sample.
Based on our projections, we're expecting more high-scoring shenanigans in tonight's contest. Both teams have had no issues finding the back of the net and have some gaudy offensive metrics. We rate the over as a one-star play.
