NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/2/22
Things are slower than usual in the NHL tonight with only four games on the go. Still, there are edges to be had in all four contests, and, as usual, we're highlighting our favorite plays in today's NHL Betting Guide.
These are some of our favorite picks from our daily projections!
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres
Sabres Moneyline (+310): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Sabres +1.5 (+136): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been unstoppable recently, winning three straight and scoring 18 goals along the way. That dominance is cooked into the betting line as they enter tonight's contest against the Buffalo Sabres as -400 favorites. However, the market appears to be overestimating the Leafs' chances, creating an edge in backing the underdog Sabres tonight in Toronto.
The Sabres have been trending positively over their recent schedule, outplaying two of their past four opponents while putting up some noteworthy offensive metrics. Buffalo has attempted at least 10 high-danger chances at five-on-five in all four games, out-chancing their opponents in three of those contests. We're expecting that production to lead to increased scoring, starting tonight against the Maple Leafs.
Petr Mrazek is the projected starter, which could be a good omen for the Sabres offense. Mrazek is stopping just 89.5% of shots this season, putting up below-average save percentages in three of his last five appearances. That's unlikely to improve on Wednesday, as the Leafs have given up at least 30 shots in four straight home games with a rolling average of 35.3 shots per game over that span.
According to our projections, tonight's matchup will be closer than the betting market implies. The Sabres have a 35.7% chance of winning, exceeding the implied probability of 24.4% that comes with the +310 moneyline price. As such, backing Buffalo on the moneyline and puckline is rated as four- and two-star plays, respectively.
Dallas Stars vs. Los Angeles Kings
Stars Moneyline (-142): 2-Star Rating out of 5
You wouldn't know it by looking at their uninspired record, but the Dallas Stars have been one of the most dominant teams in the NHL over the past week. We're anticipating that they replicate those strong performances tonight against the Los Angeles Kings and secure the victory.
Dallas has been on a tear, outplaying their last four opponents by a substantive margin. Over that stretch, the Stars have put up a cumulative 67.8% expected goals-for rating, with their lowest game score coming in at 62.4%. Dallas is playing their usual stifling defense, but it's an offensive surge that is leading to the dominant efforts. The Stars have attempted 13 or more high-danger chances in three of those games with an average of 14.5 per game.
The Kings are coming off a 7-0 shellacking at the hands of the Boston Bruins, which could be foreshadowing for tonight. LA has struggled to prevent goals from high-danger areas, allowing 21 over their past 10 outings. The Stars are positioned to exploit those inefficiencies at home.
The Stars' recent record doesn't reflect their on-ice performances, and we are expecting more wins to pile up for the Central Division team. That starts tonight against the Kings, as they enter the contest as moderate -142 favorites despite having a 62.9% chance of winning, per our projections. As such, we rate the Stars moneyline wager as a two-star play.
