NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 4/28/21
The playoff field is set! After last night's outcomes, we know the 16 teams competing for Lord Stanley's mug. There are still a few balls up in the air in terms of seeding, which will be sorted out over the next few days. Still, there are some significant edges on tonight's slate as we speed towards the postseason.
These are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils
Hurricanes Moneyline (-230): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Carolina Hurricanes have a substantive advantage over the New Jersey Devils in nearly every analytics category. However, that advantage is not yet reflected in the gambling price between these teams, as the Canes' probability of winning tonight exceeds their implied probability.
This season, Carolina has been one of the best teams in the NHL, which is illustrated over their recent outings. The Hurricanes have outplayed their opponents at five-on-five in five straight games, crossing the 60.0% threshold with their expected goals-for ratings on three occasions. Carolina's asserting themselves on both ends of the ice, out-chancing their opponents in high-danger chances in every game.
The Devils have played better hockey of late, but they don't possess the firepower to keep pace with the Canes. New Jersey has been limited to 17 or fewer scoring chances in two of their past three games and six or fewer high-danger opportunities in two of four. They've given up a bevy of chances to worse teams than Carolina, allowing 10 or more quality chances in three of their previous five.
When these teams met last week, the Devils put up their worst game score of the season. The Hurricanes have an even more significant advantage with this game shifting to their arena and the Devils starting Andrew Hammond.
According to our projections, backing the Hurricanes at -230 is rated as a three-star play.
New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals
Under 6 (-120): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The New York Islanders host the Washington Capitals as they conclude a home-and-home series. The Islanders snuck out with a 4-1 victory on Tuesday night, and based on our algorithm, tonight's contest should be another low-scoring affair.
Chances were at a premium when these teams met two nights ago. Neither team eclipsed more than 7 high-danger or 20 scoring chances at five-on-five, extending the Islanders' recent offensive downturn. New York has been limited to seven or fewer quality opportunities in four straight games, failing to attempt more than 25 scoring chances in each game, averaging just 20.0 per contest.
Similarly, the Capitals' offense has been stuck in a rut over their current schedule. Not once have the Caps attempted more than 8 high-danger or 23 scoring chances over the past five games. That's had a profound impact on output, with Washington recording only nine goals across that span and failing to record more than three in a game.
Washington has been mired in an offensive slump, which is where the Islanders typically dwell. We saw the calculated matchup from Tuesday night, and we're expecting nothing different in tonight's Metropolitan Division battle. Taking under 6 is a three-star play, per our projections.
