NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 5/26/22
The Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on Thursday night in what could be the last two-game slate of the season. The Calgary Flames face a must-win Game 5 against the Edmonton Oilers, while the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes fight for the series lead in their Eastern Conference Semifinal. As usual, we can get you ready for the action with our daily NHL Betting Guide.
These are the plays we're looking at from our daily projections!
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers
Rangers moneyline (+130): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Rangers have stifled the 'Canes through the first four games of the series, holding Carolina to six goals. New York has the metrics to back up that defensive success, leaving them with an advantage heading into hostile territory.
New York outplayed the Hurricanes in both road games this series, posting expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in each. The Broadway Blueshirts out-shot the Hurricanes at five-on-five in both games, while out-possessing them in Game 2. A similar effort should help them escape Raleigh with the series lead.
We've also seen a resurgent Rangers offense in this Metropolitan Division matchup. New York is scoring on 13.7% of shots over their last couple of outings, with four of their seven goals coming at five-on-five.
The bigger issue impacting the Canes' probability of success right now is solving Igor Shesterkin. The Russian netminder has posted a 95.1% save percentage this series, allowing just four goals at five-on-five. Shesterkin has been so good, and we've seen hot goalies carry worse teams deep in the playoffs.
According to our projections, the Rangers have a 44.9% chance of winning tonight. In reconciling that with the 43.5% implied probability that comes with the +130 moneyline price, there's a modest advantage in backing New York to win. We rate it as a one-star play.
Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers
Under 6.5 (+100): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
After watching Game 1 of this Western Conference Semifinal, very few people gave the Oilers a chance against the Flames. Yet, three games later, the Oilers hold a commanding 3-1 series lead. Calgary typically plays a more reserved defensive game, which they should revert back to for what could be a decisive Game 5.
The Flames ended the regular season allowing the fourth-fewest scoring and high-danger chances. Although they've been effective at limiting the Oilers' chances so far this series, the Flames' goals against continue to climb. We're expecting a stout defensive effort from the Calgary in Game 5, and they should be able to use their line matching to neutralize a dangerous Oilers attack.
At the same time, we're not anticipating the Flames to open the floodgates offensively. They likely prefer to stay back in their defensive structure rather than get into a track meet with Edmonton.
Calgary's five-on-five scoring remains diminished, recording just four goals at five-on-five over the last three games. It's unlikely we see a surge tonight, as the Pacific Division winners tighten things up defensively.
Offense should be at a premium in this one, with the Flames unwilling to trade offensive blows with the Oilers, a method that clearly hasn't worked so far this series. The biggest betting advantage in this one comes in backing the under. We rate it as a three-star bet, per our projections.
