Stanley Cup Odds Update (2/23): Are the Capitals Your Best Bet?
Gaining an advantage from numbers in the betting world is something anyone who has gambled looks for.
And we have numbers.
nERD is the bread and butter calculation here at numberFire. Combining it with our percentages to win the Stanley Cup could be a gateway into finding likenesses and differences between numberFire and what sportsbooks are doing to set their Stanley Cup odds. Each sportsbook has their own calculations to help set moneylines, over/unders, spreads and any sort of bet you can imagine. The people who set those numbers are intelligent and know how to take your money…most of the time.
The goal here is to compare our percentages with Vegas odds to help see where discrepancies lie. Let’s take a look at the top 10 NHL teams based on numberFire's Stanley Cup odds and compare them to the ten most likely to win the Stanley Cup, according to Bovada.com.
| Team | nf Stanley Cup Percentage | Team | Bovada Odds to Win Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 11.72% | Blackhawks | 6/1 |
| Rangers | 11.56% | Predators | 17/2 |
| Predators | 10.84% | Ducks | 9/1 |
| Lightning | 9.68% | Kings | 10/1 |
| Blackhawks | 7.04% | Blues | 10/1 |
| Penguins | 6.60% | Islanders | 12/1 |
| Canadiens | 5.40% | Penguins | 12/1 |
| Capitals | 5.28% | Bruins | 14/1 |
| Ducks | 5.20% | Wild | 14/1 |
| Red Wings | 5.08% | Canadiens | 14/1 |
The best teams in the NHL are the ones seen on both lists. And the New York Rangers are considered a better bet according to numberFire than by Bovada.
The Blue Shirts are tied with the Wild and Canadiens at 12-to-1 odds as of February 23rd. New York did not make the top ten list on here because Bovada has them listed alphabetically by city name
The Chicago Blackhawks took a massive and deserving hit in nF's Stanley Cup percentages. Chicago was supposed to get fat on home cooking with eight consecutive games at home. Heading into Tuesday evening's game against Florida, Chicago had gone 2-2-3 in the first seven games of the homestand. 6-to-1 is the lowest that they have been on Bovada in at least two weeks. Get on now, especially if you feel that the team will make some sort of splash at the trade deadline.
You can keep the Anaheim Ducks. The ninth-best nERD and third-lowest return on wager is a no-go. There's also still no official return set for starting goaltender Frederik Andersen, although the recent release of Ilya Bryzgalov could mean Andersen's return is coming. Meanwhile, the West will be a gauntlet.
The Wild and Bruins should be avoided at all costs. The Wild have been knocking on the door in the wild card race, but nF favors Stanley Cup odds for Vancouver, L.A. and Anaheim out west. Devan Dubnyk continues to play outstanding hockey in between the pipes for Minnesota, but his 2.25 goals against average and 92.5 save percentage are well about his career slash of 2.78/91.1. Boston is ravaged by injuries. The Bruins just lost David Krejci for 4-to-6 weeks with a partially torn MCL, and lost Kevan Miller for the season because of a shoulder injury. Miller is a minor role player for the B's, but is just one of many to miss time this season. If Boston can find a way to get a wild card spot, they'd have to face Tampa Bay and/or Montreal in the first round. Both are in the top eight up numberFire's Stanley Cup percentage rankings.
It feels like it was yesterday that the Los Angeles Kings were doomed. The defending Stanley Cup Champions are tied for 12th in nERD (0.17) with the Vancouver, and are now 10-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup. The Kings are have squeezed their way into the playoffs as the third team from the Pacific Division Bovada sees money in their hot streak, and it's tough to disagree with their adjustment in odds -- LA jumped another four spots in Bovada's overall rankings since February 17th. The L.A. Kings are in search of another Stanley Cup, and they're not dead yet..
I still like the Washington Capitals. The Caps have the eighth-best chance to win it all and held steady in a tie for the 13th-best odds on Bovada at 20-to-1, up from 22-to-1 last week. New head coach Barry Trotz has his team in the top half of the NHL in Shots For per 60 Minutes, Shots Against Per 60 minutes, and Corsi For Percentage. The Capitals are scoring 0.24 Goals Per 60 Minutes more than their opponent this season. In 2013-14, Washington was being outscored by 0.27 goals per game. The team has bought into Trotz’s two-way style. Do not let a tough loss to the Flyers Sunday deter you from the Caps
