NHL Betting Guide: Monday 10/17/22
Wisely, the NHL has nine games on Monday's slate before the NBA starts on Tuesday. It'll be the last time the two leagues won't overlap until a team is lifting Lord Stanley's Cup.
This set of games includes plenty of traps when looking at the betting lines. It's easy to overreact to small samples so far.
How should we avoid them and scoop up some value?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Arizona Coyotes at Toronto Maple Leafs
Coyotes +1.5 (+156) - 2 Stars
Pretty much any time you see a two-goal puckline, take it.
This line is actually listed at +2.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but our model will always compare apples to apples with a 1.5-goal equivalent. Either line you can find is sensational value to back the Coyotes tonight.
Arizona has been left for dead by public bettors. They're 0-2 and have ceded at least six goals in both contests, so Toronto is the assumed lopsided winner here. However, the Maple Leafs are also struggling.
They're 0-3 against the puckline, and their star-studded offense -- on paper -- has posted just 2.95 expected goals for (xGF) per 60 minutes this season.
Our model is actually posting a 50.2% chance that the Yotes keep this game within one goal. Against the 39.1% implied odds of that happening (per this 2.5-goal puckline), that's world-class value.
By the way, when looking at the 20 most similar profiles to this game in numberFire's database, the team representing Arizona (the road underdog) won 7 times outright.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens
Under 6.5 (+100) - 2 Stars
We've been riding a Jake Allen bounceback season to good success so far, so let's keep it rolling.
Allen is already third in the NHL with 3.62 goals saved above expected (GSAx). The Canadiens have allowed exactly three goals in all three games, and Allen didn't even start Saturday's tilt with Washington.
Montreal's offense (1.83 xGF per 60 minutes) is still an issue from last year. Their xGF mark is fourth-worst in the league so far, but this line is a bit inflated because Penguins goalie Tristan Jarry (0.77 GSAx) hasn't been stellar, either.
We've got a hot goalie on the Canadiens' side to help vanquish the strong Pittsburgh offense, and we've got the struggling goalie facing a poor offense. That's a perfect recipe for an under.
numberFire is expecting this contest to fall short of seven goals 59.7% of the time. Against the exact 50.0% implied odds at +100, we've got another value bet in Quebec.
Los Angeles Kings at Detroit Red Wings
Detroit ML (+106) - 3 Stars
Under 6.5 (-112) - 3 Stars
Our model thinks the wrong team is favored in Motown.
The Kings had loftier expectations before the season, and this really isn't about their 1-2 start. This is a tough position for a Los Angeles team that's making its first trip of the year, and the Red Wings are proving to be better than expected.
The 2-0 Wings pried Ville Husso from St. Louis, and he paid dividends with a shutout in the opener. He'll have another great shot to blank the Kings, who are sporting the 10th-worst xGF per 60 minutes (2.22) in hockey so far.
Our model likes the under here. numberFire expects fewer than seven goals 63.4% of the time, and in the 20 most similar games to this one in the database, the game stayed below that mark 13 times.
However, Detroit at home is indeed the model's straight pick to win. It's giving them a 59.8% chance to do so, which makes the underdog's moneyline (48.5% implied odds) a no-brainer to take, as well.
