NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Friday 10/21/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Oct 21st, 2022

This is such a fantastic, simple betting guide to write.

Friday has three games. One is a total lopsided matchup between Colorado and Seattle, but the other two are dead even pick 'ems on the moneyline.

Which teams should you pick to win?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

Panthers ML (-108) - 2 Stars

This could be an Eastern Conference Finals preview in October. Enjoy.

The Lightning will head south to face the Florida Panthers, and the reigning East champs are struggling. Tampa is -- unbelievably -- holding the fifth-worst expected-goals-for percentage (42.4 xGF%) in the NHL. It's shocking to see them sandwiched around Montreal and Arizona in any category.

However, Florida has gotten off to a better start. They're sporting the 9th-best xGF% in hockey, and Sergei Bobrovsky has rebounded from some downright bad years to the 15th-most goals saved above expectations (2.05 GSAx) mark in 2022.

On home ice, it's easy to support the Panthers against the struggling Bolts, and our model agrees. It's got the Ice Cats winning 61.9% of the time in this space, which creates stellar value compared to these 52.2% implied odds.

This two-star wager is numberFire's best bet of the day.

Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks

Red Wings ML (-113) - 2 Stars

I'm thankful the Red Wings aren't a larger favorite here.

Chicago won 5-2 the last time we saw them six days ago, so those good vibes have rolled into this pick 'em line. Detroit is still the better team, though.

Detroit has the 12th-best xGF% (52.1%) so far, and we'll chalk Monday up to a rough night at the office for Ville Husso. He allowed five tallies, but he's still 17th in the NHL so far in goals saved above average (1.47 GSAA). Everyone deserves a mulligan.

The Blackhawks, with arguably the worst goaltending situation in hockey, have been lucky to even win once. They're third from the bottom in xGF% (38.9%).

Even on home ice, the Blackhawks shouldn't be favored with both teams rested. Our model agrees, pegging the Red Wings to win 58.1% of the time. Current odds have them at 53.1% likely, so there's still value in betting on Detroit in this one.