NHL Betting Guide: Friday 10/28/22
Now that's more like it.
A clean 4-0 sweep of Thursday's slate made up for a mediocre week to that point.
We've got a Hurricanes game on Friday, so most of you know what that means...
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes
Under 5.5 (-104) - 2 Stars
Our model and I can't get enough of Canes unders.
Carolina has posted an under in five of their six games thus far. Far and away, this one will be the most challenging, but we've got a capable, defensive-minded squad to help it cash at -104 odds.
Ilya Sorokin for the Islanders is second in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (9.00 GSAx). He's arguably the early leader for the Vezina, and the Isles have allowed the sixth-fewest goals in hockey despite the single highest expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes in the league. He's phenomenal.
Frederik Andersen is just 22nd in that category (1.40 GSAx), but his Hurricanes have made up for it by allowing the third-fewest xGA per 60 (2.49) in the NHL.
Either way, pucks haven't been hitting the net against either of these two teams. Our model gives a 57.8% chance that this game sees fewer than six goals, which is a value bet against these 51.0% implied odds.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks
Canucks ML (+142) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (+100) - 3 Stars
The Canucks got off the shnide against the Kraken last night, and our model thinks they've got better odds than implied to make it two in a row.
They're expected to turn things over to Spencer Martin tonight, and Martin is a netminder looking to channel his form from last year. He was 13th in the NHL in GSAx (11.35) in just six games played.
Our model is likely looking at regression for both sides here. Pittsburgh has a 58.8% goals-for percentage (GF%), but their expected-goals-for percentage (xGF%) is just 55.6%. Vancouver's 40.4 GF% has underperformed their 44.8% xGF%. The Pens are still better, but there's value in the 'Nucks not being as bad as they look.
As far as the under, Martin is met here by another goalie that's 18th in GSAx this season, Tristan Jarry.
Our model thinks there's a 47.3% chance that Vancouver wins against these 41.3% implied odds. It also believes there's a 62.7% chance fewer than seven goals are scored in this game, so the total is an even better value bet against these 50.0% implied odds.
