NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/2/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Nov 2nd, 2022

We have been blessed by this Wednesday slate.

With just two games, we easily could have had no wagering spots. Several games on yesterday's 12-contest slate were like that. However, we've got two wildly fun, contrarian, and sharp sides to back.

Let's dive in.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Flyers +1.5 (+106) - 2 Stars

Fading the Maple Leafs is becoming less sharp by the hour. This might be one last time to buy in.

Toronto is 1-9 against the spread (ATS) this season, and they've lost outright to Arizona, San Jose, and Anaheim. Enough bettors have been burned that you actually see a majority of the handle -- finally -- on the Flyers' puckline for today.

Philadelphia is a bit tougher of a sell. Carter Hart is resting after playing in New York last night, but Felix Sandstrom (90.2% save rate) hasn't been awful in Hart's stead. This would be the model's best bet with Hart, but if anything, this line will likely just balloon throughout the afternoon due to Philly using their backup netminder.

With Ilya Samsonov in net for Toronto, our model leans toward the under, but it's giving the strongest take on the puckline. It's giving Philadelphia a 58.1% chance to cover, and why not wager against these 48.1% implied odds? Philly is 8-1 ATS this season.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

Under 6.5 (-108) - 3 Stars

Well, of course, it's Pittsburgh one day later.

The Penguins and Bruins turned yesterday's best bet -- the under -- into an overtime track meet. Hopefully, they'll be bogged down quite a bit on Wednesday as our model likes the under again.

The Pens are in Buffalo facing a surprisingly competent Sabres squad. Buffalo is 12th in the NHL in expected-goals-for percentage (51.9%), and 41-year-old Craig Anderson is 12th in GSAx (4.28). They're no longer a free pit stop on the second leg of a back-to-back.

As usual with the Pens, there won't be a significant drop in net from Tristan Jarry to Casey DeSmith. At this point, DeSmith (0.47 GSAx per game) might be an upgrade on Jarry (-0.13).

Our model's best bet of the night -- again -- is the under in a Pens game. The under has a 62.6% chance to hit, per our model. That's no-doubt value against these 52.3% implied odds.