NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 11/3/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Nov 3rd, 2022
An early trend suggests the Coyotes have benefitted from their new home on Arizona State's campus. Should we back them against Dallas on Thursday?

Thursday's slate has some marquee battles, but none more so than a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview between two of the best teams in hockey to start the year.

Let's look at a bet in that one -- and two more.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Boston Bruins at New York Rangers

Under 6.0 (-110) - 3 Stars

These two teams have all the makings of an under. Boston's scorching offense has done us a favor not to make this number 5.5.

While the B's have scored 15 goals in their past three games, they'll run into a brick wall tonight, and his name is Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers' netminder has followed up his god-like postseason run by posting the 11th-best goals saved above expectation (4.29 GSAx) in the NHL.

Boston is familiar with elite goaltending. Linus Ullmark is eighth in that same category (4.56) in a surprising start to 2022.

Ultimately, these teams are also top-seven squads in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes. We've got two elite defenses in a high-stakes game, which is why our model is giving a 70.0% chance we see at least a push on the total in this contest. Against 52.5% implied odds at the -110 price, we've got a wager.

Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators

Under 6.5 (-110) - 3 Stars

I think Ottawa's offense cools off at home today. That's why I'm riding the under in this spot.

The Sens have scored 3.67 goals per 60 minutes, but they've posted only 3.15 expected goals per 60. They've been a bit lucky on the offensive end, which no one wants to admit because of the high-profile offseason acquisitions.

They're also going to be in for a tough night against Logan Thompson. The Vegas goalie is fifth in GSAx (5.55) so far in a breakout campaign.

The Knights' offense is good, but they're just 15th in actual goals scored per 60 minutes and 9th in expected goals per 60. They're not a juggernaut to carry the load in the event Ottawa's scoring does regress.

Our model gives a 61.9% chance that this game sees fewer than seven goals. In terms of expected value, this is numberFire's best over/under bet of the night.

Dallas Stars at Arizona Coyotes

Coyotes +1.5 (-138) - 3 Stars

Here's something to remember about the Arizona Coyotes' odd home environment -- it affects the road team even worse.

It's something I really want to monitor moving forward this season. The Yotes have allowed the sixth-fewest actual goals per 60 minutes at home (2.33), but they've surrendered the third-most expected goals per 60 (3.77). That's almost impossible to explain with only luck or looming regression.

This game should be an odd one with both teams turning to backup netminders, too. Scott Wedgewood (-0.15 GSAx) and Connor Ingram (-1.29) have been a mixed bag for these two squads this year, creating plenty of volatility. If Dallas was rolling out Jake Oettinger, this would be a different story.

It's hard for me to turn down a one-goal cushion in a game that's hard to forecast. Our model feels the same, pegging Arizona as 70.2% likely to cover the spread. Even against these 58.0% implied odds, we've got supreme value in the Coyotes keeping things close.