NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Monday 11/7/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Nov 7th, 2022
With Darcy Kuemper in net for Washington, should we back the Capitals at home, or will the Oilers play spoiler on Monday night?

Last week was a gigantic struggle. We'll get back to basics to try and turn it around.

We've got a contrarian under and a rested home underdog to get us back in the win column.

Let's ride.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Calgary Flames at New York Islanders

Under 6.0 (-108) - 3 Stars

Before the season, I'd have expected these two squads, top-five in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes last year, to be strong defensive clubs. It hasn't quite panned out that way yet.

The Flames are currently 15th in that category, so they're around average. Jacob Markstrom was a Vezina finalist a year ago, and he hasn't been awful to begin this season, posting the 19th-most goals saved above expectation (2.51 GSAx) so far.

The Islanders have been far more disappointing. They've allowed the seventh-most xGA per 60 minutes (3.48), but thankfully, there's been a plug. Ilya Sorokin has balled to the NHL's third-highest GSAx (11.07).

So, when you add it all up here, we're still not talking about teams letting pucks in the net at will. That's why this total is just 6.0, and even with that lower total, numberFire believes it pushes or wins a combined 67.4% of the time.

Against these 52.3% implied odds, fire away.

Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals

Capitals ML (+122) - 2 Stars

Our model leans the under in this spot, but as my colleague Tom Vecchio points out, Edmonton almost always finds itself in wild shootouts. I'll pass.

If this game is anywhere near an under, though, it'll be good news for the Washington Capitals. They're by far the better overall defensive unit -- especially with Darcy Kuemper cleaning up the mess on the back end with the league's 12th-most GSAx (4.53).

That'll be a huge edge for the Caps over Jack Campbell (-6.04 GSAx), who has struggled to start the year and lost his job to Stuart Skinner.

Our model is projecting Campbell to get the start and is giving Washington a 53.6% chance to win outright against these 45.0% implied odds. This might be a wager where you want to watch the goalie news for confirmation before puck drop; the odds will likely improve for Washington if Skinner starts instead.