NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/9/22
For just a four-game slate, numberFire's model is really loving the board today. I'm even leaving out its beloved Capitals as a home underdog to win outright against Pittsburgh.
That's not a bad spot. I'd lean that way. I love these two, though.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers
Under 7.0 (-132) - 4 Stars
This is a mega-sized Hurricanes under. The days of 5.5 and 6.0 totals are on hold for the moment.
Carolina travels to Florida on Wednesday to face the high-flying Panthers, but like yesterday's line in Tampa Bay, our model is giving the green light to just find an alternate 6.5-goal total at plus money instead.
It's only projecting 6.11 goals on average here as strength meets strength. The Panthers are first in expected goals scored per 60 minutes (4.16 xGF), and the Canes have allowed the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes on defense (2.52).
Both Florida netminders have negative goals saved above expectation (GSAx), so I get this line. There is some fear Carolina scores plenty with Florida's potent offense keeping pace.
Our model, though, is still assigning a 55.3% chance this game sees six goals or fewer. That's why you should seek out an alternate total at plus money. It expects seven or fewer 76.4% of the time, though, so we can do a lot worse than this 7.0-goal total at 56.9% implied odds.
Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks
Ducks ML (+132) - 3 Stars
The Ducks were off yesterday's massive slate, and they'll face a Wild squad probably not thrilled waking up this morning.
Minnesota lost 1-0 yesterday to Los Angeles. The goal came late in the third, and now, they've burned primary goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury through one of his better efforts of the season. They'll send Filip Gustavsson to the net, and that hasn't been great news for the Wild.
Gustavsson holds a -3.72 GSAx, which is the 10th-worst mark in hockey. Now, I'll be real, Anaheim's not better suiting to win in a vacuum with John Gibson (-5.00 GSAx) in that regard, but they'll certainly have a better chance rested, at home, and facing Minnesota's backup netminder.
Given those circumstances, the Ducks are actually favored, per our model. It's assigning Anaheim a 54.9% chance to win this game against these 43.1% implied odds. The -176 puckline also rates out as a four-stager wager in the model, but the better bet -- personally -- is taking the home side to win outright at plus money.
