NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 11/10/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Sorokin ($8,300): With one of the easiest matchups on the slate, going to Sorokin in net is a borderline lock tonight. The New York Islanders are massive -275 home favorites against the Arizona Coyotes, who are one of the worst offenses in the entire league.
To this point in the season, the Coyotes are in the bottom three of the league in Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) and goals scored, both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They do not fire the puck at the net a ton, and they aren't scoring a ton of goals -- funny how that correlates.
As for Sorokin, he has been a rock for the Islanders, allowing only 1.66 goals per game with a .933 save percentage. Given how strong Sorokin has been and how bad the Coyotes' offense is, there is legitimate shutout potential for Sorokin tonight.
High-Salaried Skaters
Johnny Gaudreau ($7,400): The Columbus Blue Jackets are off to a very rough start this season and are riding a five-game losing streak into tonight's matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers. If there is any time for the Blue Jackets to start to turn things around, it would be this matchup.
When we look at the Flyers' defense, they are no doubt strong this season, allowing the sixth-fewest (2.06) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. However, they are vastly overperforming right now and due for some serious regression. If we take a look at their expected goals allowed (xGA), they should be allowing 3.20 goals per 60, which would be the second-worst in the league.
That is a massive differential from the sixth-best to the second-worst, and I'm looking to buy in against that. This is where we want to trust the best offensive player from the Blue Jackets, Johnny Gaudreau. Johnny Hockey has a solid 17 shots on goal in his last five games -- but only 2 NHL points. He's going to continue to play on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, putting him in a spot to rack up the points.
Nathan MacKinnon ($10,200): In non-breaking news, Nathan MacKinnon is amazing. He is off to a fast start this season with 19 NHL points and 55 shots on goal through just 11 games. That's a level we've come to expect from him. In just the last five games, he has 10 assists and 26 shots on goal but hasn't scored a goal himself.
The lack of goals is obviously a bit variable, but his consistent shot volume and solid ice time put him in a spot for a bit of positive regression. That can all change tonight with the Colorado Avalanche rocking a 3.65 implied goal total at home taking on the Nashville Predators.
The Preds are allowing the ninth-most (2.85) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, putting "Nate the Great" in a spot to finally find the back of the net after five games without a goal.
Value Skaters
Miles Wood ($5,400): If there's any game that's primed for a game stack, it's the New Jersey Devils hosting the Ottawa Senators. Both teams are in the top five of the league in Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created), giving us a game environment where both teams should be constantly pushing the pace on offense.
This creates plenty of action on both ends of the ice. Wood is an interesting value option to consider tonight and comes in with a surprising 7 NHL points and 22 shots on goal over his last five games. I say it's surprising since he is skating on the fourth forward line -- a spot where we normally don't see a ton of offensive production.
He is on the second power-play, though, so there is clearly a path to upside for him and with this shot volume. In this matchup, he is worth a look tonight for tournaments.
Jordan Kyrou ($4,800): The St. Louis Blues might be the biggest disappointment across the NHL, and while they haven't been great, they have a great matchup against the San Jose Sharks tonight. The Sharks are allowing the fourth-most (3.20) goals and the 13th-most (57.98) shot attempts, both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
The Sharks are a bad defensive team; no one is going to debate that. While the Blues' offense is failing to produce, this is objectively a great matchup for them. Kyrou has been one of the more consistent options for the Blues and comes in with 3 NHL points, 3 blocked shots, and 16 shots on goal over his last five games. He's on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, which should put him in a spot to grab some fantasy points tonight.
