NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 11/15/22
We swept a small four-game board yesterday. Can we do it again with the slate expanding to nine on Tuesday?
Here are our model's best picks on the ice today.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens +1.5 (-172) - 2 Stars
It's amazing that the New Jersey Devils are 12-3 despite getting what they have thus far in goal.
Vitek Vanecek has posted negative goals saved above expectation (-0.60 GSAx), and backup Mackenzie Blackwood (-2.59 GSAx) has been even worse. Now, the answer is New Jersey is statistically the best team in hockey per minute at present, holding a league-best 61.2% expected goals-for percentage (xGF%).
I still think we can take Montreal on the spread at a modest -172 price here. The Canadiens have a dismal 41.2 xGF%, but the great equalizer is in the net. They've got the advantage there with Jake Allen (3.18 GSAx).
Montreal has covered the spread in five of their eight home contests, and our model gives them a 67.7% chance to do it in this one. We can still slip a wager against these elevated 63.2% implied odds, but this number should get better throughout Tuesday afternoon.
Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning
Under 6.0 (-106) - 1 Star
For me, this is the best bet of the day.
The stellar Jake Oettinger has returned for the Stars, so we can go back to hammering their unders. GSAx is a cumulative stat, and even with this injury stint, Oettinger is still fifth in the NHL in that category (7.34).
On the other side, former Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy is still looking to find his groove. He's fared fine (1.47 GSAx) given the surprising circumstances around him defensively. The Lightning are 11th from the bottom in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes (3.25).
Still, if the Bolts at home are the worrisome side on defense for this benign total at close to even money, we're probably in pretty good shape.
Our model expects this bet to at least push 57.8% of the time. Against these 51.5% implied odds, fire away.
Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers
Capitals +1.5 (-158) - 2 Stars
The Florida Panthers' mediocrity has been one of the surprising stories of this NHL season, and this puck line is an interesting spot to test them again.
They're 14th in goals-for rate (50.5%), but their expected goals-for rate (56.8%) is much higher. A lot of that is due to Sergei Bobrovsky. The inconsistent netminder hasn't played nearly as well this season (-0.86 GSAx), yet he's expected to start over Spencer Knight (2.80 GSAx) again on Tuesday.
As for Washington, off-season acquisition Darcy Kuemper has been a life preserver on a dismal season. He's 14th in GSAx (3.92), but the Capitals have stumbled to the seventh-worst xGF% (47.1%) in the league thus far.
The better netminder is a decent place to start for this bet. Our model expects Kuemper and the Caps cover 67.6% of the time in this spot. Against these 61.2% implied odds, the road team is the puck line to back in this one.
