NHL Betting Guide: Friday 11/18/22
In today's edition of NHL scheduling oddities, we've got just one game on Friday's slate.
In a vacuum, this would have been a top-five bet on yesterday's 13-game slate, so we can still fire away on this odd matchup in Vancouver.
Where does our model find value in this one?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks
Under 6.5 (-118) - 2 Stars
The good thing about our model is it's not all about how teams perform right this second.
Last year, Jonathan Quick and Thatcher Demko were much better last year than they've been this year. Quick was 11th in goals saved above expectation (12.01 GSAx) out of 118 total goalies with an appearance, and Demko was 17th (7.30).
This season, it's just been a wildly different story. Demko has the worst GSAx (-11.39) in hockey, and Quick hasn't been all that much better (-2.17).
If the netminders get turned around at some point, these should be pretty solid defensive teams. The Kings have allowed the 7th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.74 xGA), and the Canucks -- given their record -- are a respectable 16th (3.13). Their struggles to keep pucks out of the net have fallen on Demko.
As a result, our model isn't panicking. It's still assigning a 61.1% chance this game falls short of seven goals scored. Against these 54.1% implied odds, we have a value wager in the lone game on Friday.
