NHL Betting Guide: Monday 11/28/22
Our model tends to favor totals, but today, we're only getting two sharp sides to love.
Rested squads at home? Yes, please.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers
Rangers ML (-110) - 2 Stars
I feel like this is a position where the upstart team shouldn't be favored over the blue-blood, been-there-done-that side.
The Rangers check every box. They're fifth in the NHL in expected-goals-for percentage (55.2% xGF), and Igor Shesterkin has followed up his Vezina-winning season with another strong one. He's 13th in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (4.76 GSAx).
The conundrum here is the New Jersey Devils -- to almost everyone's surprise -- do, too. They currently lead the NHL in xGF% (60.3%), and Vitek Vanecek is right on Shesterkin's heels in GSAx (4.67).
However, New York has a track record of being this solid for a much longer period of time. One wouldn't expect them to regress as much as New Jersey, who have outperformed expectations, and Vanecek is well above his career averages in goal so far.
The Rags are getting only 39% of bets in this space, but our model is fading the public. It gives New York a 58.8% chance to win tonight, which is the best value on the board against these pick 'em 52.5% implied odds.
Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues
Blues ML (-106) - 2 Stars
The money split here made me feel better about our model's intuition.
It really loves the St. Louis Blues. Despite an 11-10-0 record, they're 13th in our power rankings after spending the bulk of the year in the top 10. They're just 23rd in expected-goals-for rate (47.6%), but I also believe they are better than that mark. Plus, Jordan Binnington (-0.29 GSAx) hasn't been his peak self thus far, and they're still above .500.
The Stars, in my opinion, would win a series with St. Louis. They're 15th in xGF% (51.5%), and Jake Oettinger (7.64 GSAx) is one of the best 'tenders in hockey. However, one-game samples are different than a series.
On the second leg of this short road trip, Dallas has been pummeled with goals recently. They've ceded 13 in their past three games overall. There's a belief that St. Louis can keep it rolling given they've underperformed their expected-goals-scored rate by 0.04 per 60 minutes.
Most importantly, sharps have made a position in this game. Despite getting only 47% of bets, 67% of the handle is with St. Louis. Our model thinks the Blues, as home underdogs, win outright 57.2% of the time tonight.
