NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 12/1/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Jake Oettinger ($8,000): With a favorable matchup against the Anaheim Ducks, Oettinger should be a clear option in net for the Dallas Stars tonight. The Stars find themselves as large -310 home favorites, and a clean win is certainly on the table for Oettinger.
The Ducks are one of the weakest offensive teams in the league, scoring only 2.11 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (fourth-lowest in the league). They also carry a weak 51.77 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created), putting them as the sixth-lowest team in the league.
Their offensive output is lacking on a nightly basis, and while the lack of shots may limit the opposing goalie's ceiling of points, his floor of points is very strong due to his win equity.
High-Salaried Skaters
Matthew Tkachuk ($10,100): The Florida Panthers need to get back on track, coming in as losers of three straight games. They have a favorable matchup against the Vancouver Canucks to get things rolling in the right direction, which is why we see them with a solid 3.69 implied goal total tonight.
The Canucks are allowing the 8th-most (2.84) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations and the 10th-worst (58.89) Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed). Allowing a ton of shot attempts leads to allowing a ton of goals; I'm not breaking any news over here. While this is bad for Vancouver, it's great for opposing offenses.
The Panthers have one of the stronger offenses in the league, sitting in the top four in goals scored (3.02) and Corsi For (67.75), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Tkachuk is playing a big part in that production with 12 NHL points and 29 shots on goal over his last 10 games. We should see that continue tonight, and it should allow Tkachuk to reach for another multi-point game.
Mikko Rantanen ($10,000): The Colorado Avalanche are staring down a very favorable matchup against the Buffalo Sabres tonight, and we should see plenty of goals -- as the 6.5 over/under indicates. The Sabres are allowing the seventh-most (2.89) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which we saw on display last night when they gave up four goals to the Detroit Red Wings.
If this is the case, we want a clear high upside option from the Avalanche, and that means going to Rantanen. He's seeing time on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 14 NHL points, 30 shots on goal, and 5 blocked shots in his last 10 games. If you can afford to stack him with Nathan MacKinnon ($10,300), you will have access to an immense fantasy ceiling.
Value Skaters
Arthur Kaliyev ($5,300): This might be a bit of an off-the-board-play for some, but Kaliyev is a strong value option. I say that because Kaliyev is on the fourth forward line for the Los Angeles Kings. Rarely, do I ever look at a fourth-line player for fantasy production since they are generally not great on offense, but there is an exception to every rule.
Kaliyev also sees time on the second power-play unit because he is a shoot-first type of player. Over the last 10 games, Kaliyev has 22 shots on goal and 7 NHL points. The Kings' top-line center, Anze Kopitar, has 22 shots on goal and 6 NHL points over the last 10 games.
The point is Kaliyev is producing a very solid amount on the ice because he's trying to maximize every second he is out there. He won't play a massive amount of minutes every night, but they are generally fantasy-friendly minutes, and he has the freedom to fire the puck at the net.
Calen Addison ($3,900): With a 3.51 implied goal total, the Minnesota Wild are a clear fantasy option tonight against the Edmonton Oilers. The Wild have mixed things up a bit, and they are giving the 22-year-old defensemen Addison a shot on the first power-play unit.
He's under $4,000 and with that type of offensive role, so he's clearly a value option against a defense from the Oilers, who are allowing the eighth-most (2.84) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Over the last 10 games, Addison comes in with 4 NHL points, 14 shots on goal, and 3 blocked shots.
