NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 12/14/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Filip Gustavsson ($7,700): Gustavsson has been confirmed as the starter for the Minnesota Wild, who are -260 moneyline favorites tonight against the Detroit Red Wings. Gustavsson has been a bit up and down in recent outings. He's allowed four or more goals in two of his last five games. In the other three games, he allowed a total of two goals.
He's been inconsistent, but given his salary, he's a great option with the Wild being such heavy favorites. Hopefully, we see the high end of his production tonight since the Red Wings come in scoring only 2.24 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the eighth-fewest in the league. Between this being a small three-game slate, the value Gustavsson offers, and the matchup, he is a clear option at goalie tonight.
High-Salaried Skaters
Kirill Kaprizov ($10,000): Kaprizov is the best pure goal-scorer on tonight's slate and brings upside that is tough to fade. The Wild have a 3.58 implied total, and if they are going to reach or exceed that, Kaprizov is likely going to be involved. He is skating on their first forward line and their first power-play unit, which has allowed him to rack up 15 NHL points and 46 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
The Red Wings are overperforming on defense right now and should be due for a bit of regression. They are currently allowing 2.42 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 17th in the league. However, if we look at their Expected Goals Against (xGA), they should be allowing 2.73 Goals, which would put them as the 10th-worst team in the league. Their defense should be on the way down, and with a player like Kaprizov on the other side, he could be the one to get the ball rolling.
Nazem Kadri ($7,300): The Calgary Flames have a 3.62 implied total and could be in for a high-scoring game against the Vancouver Canucks. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent on defense this year and are in the bottom half of the league for the most Goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. This should present a game environment that is very conducive to fantasy scoring.
Kadri is a consistent option with 6 NHL points, 34 shots on goal, and 4 blocked shots over his last 10 games. A role on the second forward line and the first power-play unit put him in a spot to continue this level of fantasy production.
Value Skaters
Shane Pinto ($5,400): Pinto is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, which should lead to good things tonight with the Ottawa Senators carrying a slate-high 3.74 implied goal total. This is a very favorable matchup for the Senators as the Montreal Canadiens are allowing the seventh-most (2.96) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
The Senators are a team that likes to push the pace on offense and enter this one with the fourth-best (64.21) Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created), per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. That is incredibly strong and has caused them to underproduce on offense right now, making them primed for an offensive breakout.
