NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 1/25/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Martin Jones ($7,600): The Seattle Kraken come in as -170 home favorites tonight, putting them as the second-heaviest favorite on the slate yet, Jones is the seventh-most expensive goalie. There is a clear discrepancy between the two, and this is a spot I like to look for goalies who are expected to come away with the win.
The Kraken are one of the stronger defensive teams, allowing 2.21 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-best in the league. They've also ceded 52.84 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed), which is the fourth-best in the league. This is a favorable matchup against the Vancouver Canucks, who are on the second night of a back-to-back.
High-Salaried Skaters
Connor McDavid ($10,700): McDavid is so unbelievably consistent while also carrying a high ceiling; it's not worth fading him when he is on the slate. Over his last 10 games, he has 16 NHL points and 55 shots on goals -- a level of production no one else on this slate can match. The Edmonton Oilers are carrying a slate-high 4.19 implied goal total against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a matchup that is ripe for fantasy production.
Over the last two weeks, the Blue Jackets are allowing the fourth-most (3.53) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the perfect matchup for the Oilers. During that same time frame, the Oilers are scoring a staggering 4.65 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which tops the league by nearly a full goal.
This is an unbelievably favorable matchup for McDavid and the Oilers -- not that they needed any extra help.
William Nylander ($9,000): Nylander is in the midst of a strong offensive season and is cookin' right now with 11 NHL points and 40 shots on goal over his last 10 games. He holds a strong role on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, which have always put him in a spot to produce plenty of fantasy points. That's something we should see tonight.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are taking on the New York Rangers where the over/under is set at 6.0 in a matchup I'm expecting plenty of goals -- as explained on Covering the Spread. Nylander and the Leafs have posted three-plus goals in four of their last five games and have that type of scoring potential every night.
Value Skaters
Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5,600): Bjorkstrand is underproducing in the goal department right now. He's a player that should be due for some positive goal-scoring regression. According to MoneyPuck, Bjorkstrand has 12.8 Expected Goals this season based on his volume of shots but has only scored 7 actual goals. He's getting the chances, but it's just a bit of bad puck luck right now.
The Kraken have a 3.61 implied goal total tonight against the Canucks, who are allowing 3.17 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-worst in the league over the last two weeks. Bjorkstrand is on the third forward line and the second power-play unit, but he could be moved up due to a few injury situations for the Kraken tonight.
Anthony Beauvillier ($4,900): Beauvillier and the New York Islanders aren't a great offensive team, but they have an elite matchup tonight against the Ottawa Senators. Over the last two weeks, the Senators are allowing 3.89 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league.
Their defense is so bad, so it's the ultimate get-right spot for a struggling offense. Beauvillier is on the first forward line and the second power-play unit for the Isles with 3 NHL points and 33 shots on goal in his last 10 games.
