NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/21/23
As much as I wanted to smash a nine-game board, schedule-makers didn't cooperate. Seven of the nine favorites on Tuesday are at least 65% likely to win, per our model.
With the two pick 'ems not leaving a clear edge, we're left scrounging crumbs of value in the mismatches. To the model, two spots stood above the rest -- and one with plenty of conviction.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes
Blues +1.5 (+114) - 2 Stars
The Hurricanes are a bit like the new Bruins. We'd be lucky to see those two in the East finals for an all-time matchup.
Since January 1st, they've posted the third-most expected scores (xGF) per 60 minutes (3.71), and they've allowed the fifth-fewest expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes (2.77). They're a well-rounded hockey team dominating both ends of the ice, so there's never really a plum spot to target them.
It's all about the number, and this mark might be just a bit too wide. At the very least, we've seen moments of competence from St. Louis defensively (3.28 xGA per 60 minutes).
The sole weakness at the moment with Carolina is Frederik Andersen in goal. In terms of goals saved above expectation (GSAx), Andersen (-0.55 GSAx) hasn't been close to his 2021-22 form, but neither has Jordan Binnington (-5.97 GSAx). Both add a layer of variance to this one.
Our model sees the Blues as 53.2% likely to cover a one-goal margin at 46.7% implied odds, but St. Louis' number likely improves throughout the day as bettors support the Canes. You can wait and see if there's additional value incoming.
Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers
Flyers +1.5 (-102) - 2 Stars
Under 7.0 (-128) - 4 Stars
The Flyers are searching for an Alberta sweep with the hometown kid in goal.
Samuel Ersson performed admirably in Monday's 3-2 win over Calgary, but they saved their best for last. Carter Hart, born in Sherwood Park, has as good a chance as any to stimy the Oilers' elite offense. He's posted 14.01 GSAx this year, which is the eighth-best mark in hockey.
The Oils likely counter with Stuart Skinner (11.43 GSAx) after his off day on Sunday, but Skinner and the Edmonton defense will always be the second act.
Led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton leads the NHL in goals scored per 60 since January 1st (4.02), but there are reasons to believe unders and slower performances are on the way. They've only posted 3.66 xGF per 60 minutes during that same time. They've been both good and lucky -- in that order.
The total is the headliner for the model here. It sees seven or fewer goals in this one 76.7% of the time. Notably, it sees six or fewer goals 55.8% of the time, which means you could also take under 6.5 at anything longer than -126 as it trends in that direction.
It also buys Philadelphia's chances to hang tight, awarding them a 57.4% chance to cover this near-even-money puckline.
