NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 2/27/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Jake Oettinger ($8,800): The Dallas Stars are big -285 home favorites against the Vancouver Canucks, putting Oettinger in a spot for the win. The Canucks have their eyes set on the draft, and after making a few trades, their roster is simply lacking enough consistent players to put together a full game.
Oettinger has been solid for the Stars all season and comes in with three goals or fewer allowed in 9 of his last 10 games. This shouldn't be a surprise since Oettinger has 19.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which is the sixth-best in the league. He should be in a spot for a relatively easy win tonight.
High-Salaried Skaters
David Pastrnak ($10,200): With a 3.44 implied goal total, the Boston Bruins are in a for a high-scoring game against the Edmonton Oilers. The over/under is sitting at 6.5, and with two of the best offenses in the league going head-to-head, we should be looking here for some fantasy upside.
Since the start of February, the Oilers are allowing 3.01 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 11th-worst in the league. During that same time, the Bruins' offense is scoring 3.42 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-best. The goals should come early and often in this one and getting up to Pastrnak is a bit of a priority tonight.
Pasta is on the second forward line and the first power-play for the Bruins, coming in with 9 NHL points, 47 shots on goal, and 7 blocked shots over his last 10 games.
Jason Robertson ($9,400): The Stars have a slate-high 3.64 implied goal total and should be a very popular team in all formats tonight. The Canucks are allowing 3.54 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations since the start of February, which is the fourth-worst in the league.
The Stars' offense is actually underproducing right now with only 1.98 goals scored in the same situations since the start of February. However, if we look at their expected goals scored (xGF), they should be up at 2.63, which is a noticeable difference. They are due for some positive scoring regression, and this matchup is one that could get the ball rolling.
Robertson is an elite goal scorer and comes in with 8 NHL points and 34 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
Value Skaters
David Perron ($5,300): The Detroit Red Wings are taking on the Ottawa Senators in a game with a 6.5 over/under and plenty of fantasy options. Perron is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit for the Red Wings, a prime offensive role to have in this type of game environment.
Over his last 10 games, Perron has 7 assists and 24 shots on goal but hasn't scored a goal. In fact, he hasn't scored a goal in his last 15 games. The Senators are allowing 2.80 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, which is the ninth-worst in the league. With a strong offensive role and a great matchup, Perron has a great chance to break this cold streak.
Jake Sanderson ($5,100): Another option from this Senators versus Red Wings game would be Sanderson. He is the defender on the second power-play unit for the Senators and offers some clear point-per-dollar value. In his last 10 games, he has 5 NHL points, 16 shots on goal, and 21 blocked shots. Filling up the stat sheet in multiple categories is great, especially when we are looking at a back-and-forth high-scoring game.
