NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 3/24/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Sorokin/Semyon Varlamov ($8,200): The New York Islanders are -205 road favorites against the Columbus Blue Jackets, which is a clear plus matchup for them. This is mostly about how bad the Blue Jackets have been on defense recently, which puts all of their opponents in a spot to come away with the win.
Over the last month, the Blue Jackets are allowing a whopping 4.06 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league. Compare that to their season rate of 3.30 goals allowed, and they've found a way to get even worse as the season has gone on.
While the Islanders are a strong defensive team, the defense on the other side is so bad that the win equity is high for Sorokin or Varlamov tonight.
High Salaried Skaters
Mikko Rantanen ($9,600): The Colorado Avalanche have a slate-high 4.28 implied goal total and look to be the chalk of this small three-game slate. The Avs are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins the other night, and the Arizona Coyotes are the perfect team to see on the other side.
This season, the Yotes are allowing 2.70 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 12th-worst mark in the league. They've also ceded a 60.64 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) -- good for the fifth-worst in the NHL. They aren't a good defensive team, and with the Avs' offense on the other side, they should be able to post several goals.
Over the last month, the Avalanche are scoring 3.54 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, putting them as the third-best team in the league. The offense can come early and often for them, which offers plenty of fantasy upside.
Rantanen is always in the mix for their offense. His 13 NHL points and 32 shots on goal over the last 10 games indicate such. He has multi-point potential every night, and this is a clear matchup for him to put that on display.
Jack Hughes ($9,800): Jack Hughes is going to score a goal tonight. That's the short answer for the New Jersey Devils visiting the Buffalo Sabres tonight, where we have a juicy 6.5 over/under. The Devils are rocking a 3.64 implied goal total, and it won't be a surprise to see them cruise past that given how bad the Sabres have been on defense lately.
In the last month, the Sabres are allowing 4.02 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-worst rate in the league. That is nearly a full goal worse than their mark of 3.12 for the entire season.
When it comes to Hughes, he's on the second forward line and the first power-play but has hit a slight downturn in offensive production lately. Over his last 10 games, he has 6 NHL points, 43 shots on goal, and 7 blocked shots. Over his last five games, he has no goals but 25 shots on goal.
That type of shot volume is amazing to see on a nightly basis, and with this very favorable defensive matchup, he should get back to his scoring ways tonight.
Value Skaters
Kyle Palmieri ($5,200): As noted above, the Blue Jackets are a mess on defense right now, and it puts the Islanders in a great spot to get some goals on the board. Palmieri is on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 8 NHL points and 19 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
With the Islanders carrying a 3.69 implied goal total, they are a good team to get some exposure to since they offer value options in a clear high-upside matchup.
Victor Olofsson ($5,400): The Sabres are struggling on defense but still have a solid offense that can put them in a lot of high-scoring games. This gives their players plenty of fantasy potential due to the game environment being very fantasy-friendly.
Olofsson is on the third forward line and the first power-play unit for the Sabres, coming in with 4 NHL points, 18 shots on goal, and 4 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
