NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 3/28/23
The NHL has loaded up a 10-game docket for Tuesday, and we'll really have to pull out our magnifying glasses. There are some lopsided matchups, but the betting lines don't make a ton of sense in quite a few.
Let's make sense of them together.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins
Predators +1.5 (+102) - 3 Stars
Under 6.5 (-130) - 3 Stars
It's pretty easy to expect a low-scoring, tight contest with two of the three realistic Vezina Trophy finalists in goal -- and they're playing well right now.
Juuse Saros has continued to captain the Predators' ship. Just in the month of March, Saros has amassed 4.89 goals saved above expectation (GSAx). That's the 11th-best mark of 71 goalies to man the crease, and he's supported an offense tallying the fourth-fewest expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes in that same period (2.56).
On the other side, Boston's dream season can largely be chalked up to goaltending, too. When backup Jeremy Swayman (8.73 GSAx in March) leads the entire NHL for a month in a primary value statistic, you're in good shape, but Linus Ullmark (3.43) has been solid, as well. There is no real goaltending controversy when they're both elite.
Goals should be at a premium here, and Saros has outplayed tonight's projected starter, Ullmark, this month. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Nashville hangs tight.
That's precisely what our model believes they'll do; it gives a 59.6% chance the Preds cover at plus money. numberFire also believes the game has fewer than seven goals 65.9% of the time, but these odds imply just a 56.5% chance.
Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks
Blackhawks +1.5 (-105) - 2 Stars
Something's wrong with Jake Oettinger, and if it's not corrected soon, Dallas might see a quick exit in the playoffs despite their tremendous record.
So far in March, Oettinger has posted -4.28 GSAx, which is 60th of 71 netminders to have made an appearance this month. Once the brick wall holding together the Stars' inconsistent offense, Oetter has turned the tide on his goal scorers.
That's the only conjecture I can make about this otherwise-baffling line. The Blackhawks haven't covered in five straight games and have a -4 goal differential against Dallas this year, but they arguably hold a massive goaltending advantage for the first time in this stretch. Alex Stalock has posted 1.51 GSAx in that same period (25th of 71).
Our model is a believer in Chicago, too. It projects them to cover 58.7% of the time versus these 51.2% implied odds. However, it may not be wise to rush to the window yet. This line could balloon throughout the afternoon on Tuesday with the public rushing to bet Big D.
Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks
Under 6.5 (-122) - 2 Stars
I don't lay -1.5 pucklines often, and the road isn't the best place to do so. Still, the Sharks should struggle to score tonight, inviting an under wager here.
For the month of March, San Jose has tallied just 2.75 xGF per 60 minutes, which is the eighth-lowest mark in the league. They're now tasked with turning it around against a Winnipeg defense ceding the ninth-fewest expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 in the NHL during that same period.
Plus, the Jets' goaltending has been stellar all year. Connor Hellebuyck has posted 24.65 GSAx for the season, which is fourth behind Ullmark, Saros, and Ilya Sorokin. Those three have been on a different planet than others, but Hellebuyck comfortably heads the next tier down.
Now, the reason I -- nor the model -- want to back San Jose? James Reimer (-8.06 GSAx) is a blowup waiting to happen.
All in all, this appears to be the best way to support a comfortable, low-scoring Jets win, and our model believes the under hits here 60.9% of the time versus these 55.0% implied odds.
