NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 3/30/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Linus Ullmark ($8,900): The Boston Bruins are massive -480 home favorites against the Columbus Blue Jackets and simply aren't going to lose this game. The Bruins are coming off a loss and simply don't lose two games in a row that often this season -- as their 57-12-5 record would indicate.
Ullmark has been elite all season and enters with three goals or fewer allowed in 9 of his last 10 starts. This has helped power them to only allow 1.54 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last three weeks, which is the second-best mark in the league. During that same time, the Blue Jackets are allowing a league-worst 5.54 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which should put the Bruins' offense in a great spot and power Ullmark to a win.
High Salaried Skaters
Sebastian Aho ($7,100): The Carolina Hurricanes are in need of a bounce-back win and face a soft opponent in the Detroit Red Wings. The Canes are in the midst of a very close race for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division and looking to secure their playoff seeding. This is not a game they should be taking lightly, and that means full steam ahead for their offense.
Over the last three weeks, the Canes have been seriously underproducing on offense, and it's very noticeable. In this time, the Canes have only scored 2.05 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 28th in the league. That's flat-out terrible. However, if we look at their expected goals scored (xGF), they should be up at 2.84 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which would be the ninth-best in the league.
That is a massive differential and suggests they are due for some positive regression on offense. When it comes to the Red Wings, over the last three weeks they are allowing 3.33 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (seventh-worst in the league).
If there is any time for the Canes to get their offense back on track, it would be with this matchup versus a struggling defense.
Brad Marchand ($6,800): The Bruins lead the slate with a 4.30 implied goal total and have a great matchup versus the Blue Jackets. As noted above, the Blue Jackets are allowing a whopping 5.54 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the worst in the league over the last three weeks.
Over that same time, the Bruins are scoring 3.18 Goals in the same situations, putting them as the 11th-best team in the league. Despite that scoring, Marchand has no goals and just 19 shots on goal over his last 10 games. He has managed to pick up eight assists in those 10 games, but this is clearly a lower level of production than we are accustomed to seeing from him.
With a role on the top forward line and the first power-play unit, this is the time for him to break his goal drought and find the back of the net.
Value Skaters
Jordan Eberle ($5,100): The Seattle Kraken have a strong 4.09 implied goal total tonight against the lowly Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks have opted to not play defense to end the season, and that's fine by me since we can stack against them any time they are on the slate. Over the last three weeks, the Ducks are allowing the fifth-most (3.43) goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
This presents an opposing team with significant offensive upside, and that leads us to Eberle on the top line and the power-play unit for the Kraken. Over his last 10 games, he has 5 NHL points, 24 shots on goal, and 4 blocked shots, making him a great point-per-dollar play tonight.
Pavel Dorofeyev ($4,600): The Vegas Golden Knights are another team in a clear bounce-back spot as they are set to take on the San Jose Sharks. This is a clear matchup of two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, and it all points to Vegas tonight.
Over the three weeks, the Golden Knights are scoring 3.40 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-best in the league. During that same time, the Sharks are allowing 3.60 Goals in the same situations, which is the third-worst in the league.
Dorofeyev is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit for Vegas, coming in with 7 NHL points and 20 shots on goal over his last 10 games. With this type of matchup, he could be a popular value play in all formats tonight.
