NHL Betting Guide: Friday 3/31/23
Friday's five-game NHL slate isn't showing a ton of value in numberFire's model, but we do have a rock-solid total to target.
Where can we successfully end this week?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Detroit Red Wings at Winnipeg Jets
Under 5.5 (+110) - 2 Stars
What we find in terms of betting value might be lacking in entertainment.
Goals should be brutally difficult to come by when Detroit and Winnipeg match up. You won't two better fits for an under, which is why this line sits so low.
Defensively, both of these clubs are excellent. The Red Wings and Jets have allowed the fourth- and ninth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes since March 1st, and offensively, things aren't much more promising to light the lamp. Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck is also sixth in goals saved above expectation (24.69 GSAx) this season.
He only furthers the Jets' defensive presence and helps make up for Magnus Hellberg (-1.69 GSAx) on the other side.
The Jets (3.16 expected goals scored per 60 in March) are fine. It's Detroit that naturally falls into low-scoring, ugly contests by combining their excellent blue line with a forward group scoring the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes this month (2.67).
Our model expects fewer than six goals in this game 54.2% of the time, but these odds imply just a 47.6% chance it happens.
