NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/4/23
We've got some bad goaltending on today's docket, but making heads or tails of it could be the key to grabbing some coin on Tuesday.
Which spots stand above the rest?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens
Red Wings -1.5 (+188)
The tanking Canadiens are going deep into their bag of tricks to try and secure Connor Bedard.
They've recalled Cayden Primeau from the AHL, and this isn't a promotion on merit as much as trying out a prospect. Primeau's 4.05 GAA and .876 save percentage in the minors don't provide much hope he'll regularly stop pucks at the NHL level.
It's the opposite story for the visiting Red Wings. They'll -- at long last -- get back starting netminder Ville Husso for this one. He's been out due to an injury. Husso's expected Fenwick save rate (xFSv%) of 93.1% is pretty stellar, so they're happy to have him back.
Even if Husso wasn't an upgrade, these teams aren't very close. Detroit has posted 2.71 expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes since March 1st; Montreal sits at just 2.44. The Wings have also allowed just 2.98 expected goals per 60 in that period with the Canadiens (3.24) lagging behind again.
It's easy to see why 82% of the puckline handle is with the better squad despite receiving just 44% of total bets.
Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues
Flyers ML (+110)
The Flyers might not have Carter Hart tonight. It also might not matter.
I'd love to get Hart back from his injury for this wager. He sits 12th in the NHL with 15.50 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this year. However, this price is on the current projection of Felix Sandstrom getting the nod and would shift if Hart was confirmed active.
Here's the thing, though -- Sandstrom (-7.42 GSAx) is also a better goaltender than St. Louis' Jordan Binnington (-9.83 GSAx), who has become mostly sizzle above substance at this stage of his career.
Philadelphia's skating better, too. Since March 1st, their expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is 47.6% to the Blues' rate of 43.7%.
With the better goalie and playing better at present, it's easy to back the road squad at this price, and there might be enormous closing line value (CLV) if Hart ends up getting confirmed to return.
Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks
Canucks ML (-108)
Fading Seattle didn't work well yesterday, but they're a vastly different team to value on a back-to-back.
Philipp Grubauer (3.40 GSAx) has actually had a nice bounceback season for the playoff-bound Kraken. It's backup Martin Jones (-10.18 GSAx) that's left Seattle climbing out of holes across his 46 appearances, and he'll take on a surprisingly hot Vancouver Canucks squad on Tuesday.
Vancouver has collected points in 12 of its last 15 games, and it's legitimate. Their 53.4 xGF% is 10th-best in the NHL, and they're not even too far behind Seattle (56.8%). Plus, during this hot stretch, Thatcher Demko has played much better (-1.66 GSAx) than his season-long -10.39 GSAx would indicate.
On rest and at home, the Canucks are getting just 30% of bets, but 56% of the cash is behind Vancouver. We'll follow the sharps to fade Jones.
