NHL Betting Guide: Monday 4/10/23
Monday's slate is packed to the gills after just two games on Sunday, but gaps in motivation have made it abnormally hard to find value on such a large slate.
Which spots stand above the rest?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers
Panthers -1.5 (+164)
Under 6.5 (+120)
The rest of the NHL might want to watch out. The Panthers appear to have solved their largest weakness at the perfect time.
Alex Lyon has wrassled the starting job away from Sergei Bobrovsky, and it appears he's not looking back. In terms of goals saved above expectation (GSAx), Lyon (10.75 GSAx) has been the fourth-best goaltender in the sport since March 1st.
As a result, Florida isn't playing catch-up in spots like this. They're sixth in expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) in that same period (55.8%), which -- as has been the case most of the season -- trumps the mark from Toronto (53.2%) entering this one.
Considering Ilya Samsonov (3.91 GSAx since March 1st) is -- and has been -- a quality netminder on the other side, this matchup might finally have a low-scoring feel that it's truly lacked amidst these clubs' rivalry. That was the case back on March 29th; Florida won in Toronto by a score of 3-2.
Given the tenor of that game, these 37.9% implied odds that Florida, at home, wins by multiple goals are too low. They'd just need an empty-netter amidst the empty-net analytical revolution.
Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames
Under 5.5 (-104)
Before the season, many -- including yours truly -- had sky-high expectations of the Calgary Flames. They've been undone by goaltending to this point, but Jacob Markstrom might slowly be putting the pieces together.
Markstrom's play is now starting to mirror that of the defense in front of him. For the season, Calgary has allowed the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.77), but they're just 13th from the bottom in actual goals allowed per 60 (3.00) -- in large part thanks to Markstrom's struggles.
However, since March 1st, Markstrom is 30th in the NHL in GSAx (2.06). While that's far from special, it's not actively damaging his team at this point.
On the other side of this one, we know we can count on Juuse Saros. Saros leads the NHL in GSAx in that same period (14.91), and he's second overall this season (44.93).
The Flames' defense is elite, and so is Nashville's goaltender. With Markstrom's improved play of late, it's no surprise 68% of the money is on this under despite receiving only 43% of tickets. numberFire's model also gives this under a 54.3% chance of hitting.
